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Norm Chronicles
Is it safer to fly or take the train? How dangerous is skydiving? And is eating that extra sausage going to kill you? We’ve all heard the statistics for risky activities, but what do they mean in the real world? In The Norm Chronicles, journalist Michael Blastland and risk expert David Spiegelhalter explore these questions through the stories of average Norm and an ingenious measurement called the MicroMort—a one in a million chance of dying. They reveal why general anesthesia is as dangerous as a parachute jump, giving birth in the US is nearly twice as risky as in the UK, and that the radiation from eating a banana shaves 3 seconds off your life. An entertaining guide to the statistics of personal risk, The Norm Chronicles will enlighten anyone who has ever worried about the dangers we encounter in our daily lives.
383 pages, Paperback
First published June 3, 2014
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 80 reviews
February 11, 2023
The way we perceive and quantify risk is interesting and confusing and very much illogical. Our primate brains seem hardwired to focus on very personal, very subjective risks, often to the detriment of the bigger picture — things that may help to survive a close brush with a sabertooth tiger but not quite to win the lottery or decide whether eating bacon really affects cancer risk that much. Or why an average person would easily opt for a CT scan over a trip to Chernobyl neighborhood.
The way we are pretty terrible at estimating risks of morbidity and mortality was actually quite interesting, and introducing the concepts of MicroMorts and MicroLives served as a good quantification tool.
But the authors just had to ruin the pretty good popular statistic book by bringing in the characters to illustrate their points — the statistically average and “normal” Norm, the risk-averse prudent Prudence, and reckless risk-loving Kevlin family. These appear in vignettes at the start of each chapters — those over-exaggerated over-the-top silly vignettes, mercilessly interrupting the book every time it showed any signs of settling nicely in its statistical groove. They were distracting, boring and very unnecessary and caused me to alternatively facepalm and eyeroll in unhealthy amounts.
And the focus on those Norm/Prudence/Kevlin vignettes seemed to shift too much attention from actual content, making it a bit thin at times.
Overall, it seems statistics and psychology are much closely related than I thought.
————
Oh, and here’s a bit I found quite funny:
Well, let’s see. 20 stab wounds, no suspect. A routine kitchen accident, methinks.
————
3 stars.
——————
Also posted on my blog.
“We don’t ‘see’ odds – how likely the thing is – we ‘see’ consequences. That’s what people would mean if they were to say ‘picture the risk’. They mean picture the worst that can happen.”
The way we are pretty terrible at estimating risks of morbidity and mortality was actually quite interesting, and introducing the concepts of MicroMorts and MicroLives served as a good quantification tool.
“The thought of “what if?”—what if the worst happened—beat the numbers game every time.”
But the authors just had to ruin the pretty good popular statistic book by bringing in the characters to illustrate their points — the statistically average and “normal” Norm, the risk-averse prudent Prudence, and reckless risk-loving Kevlin family. These appear in vignettes at the start of each chapters — those over-exaggerated over-the-top silly vignettes, mercilessly interrupting the book every time it showed any signs of settling nicely in its statistical groove. They were distracting, boring and very unnecessary and caused me to alternatively facepalm and eyeroll in unhealthy amounts.
And the focus on those Norm/Prudence/Kevlin vignettes seemed to shift too much attention from actual content, making it a bit thin at times.
Overall, it seems statistics and psychology are much closely related than I thought.
————
Oh, and here’s a bit I found quite funny:
“Comparisons between murder rates in the United Kingdom and the United States can be controversial, and differences in definitions create some uncertainty around them. For example, in the United Kingdom, it is only murder when someone is convicted of murder. In the United States, if there’s a body and officers suspect murder, then it’s counted as murder.”
Well, let’s see. 20 stab wounds, no suspect. A routine kitchen accident, methinks.
————
3 stars.
——————
Also posted on my blog.
December 30, 2024
This was an enthusiastic referral from an editorial in the Oncology Times, a trade publication for cancer researchers and practitioners. After reading this book (mostly) with good friends from Chaos Oasis, I suspect that the strong recommendation came from a close friend, because it was a Herculean endeavor to get through this book. The math, well, the math might be strong. But the narrative? The worst.
The premise is great: although many of us like to think in terms of 'risky behavior' (famous childhood line: "If all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you jump too?"), the authors try to help the readers conceptualize what risk really is. Why do so many of us refuse to ride motorcycles, but willingly undergo general anesthesia? This is an excellent question, and while the statistics on death rates are officially the same, likely we have very different ideas about the risks entailed.
The beginning is great at laying out the errors of thinking.
"Probability--at least one version--begins with counting past events... It then uses this fact to predict a pattern....But then it goes a step further: from that general prediction it gives odds for what will happen to individuals...Thus it moves from past to future, from the mass to the individual."
Initially, the authors also did a nice job of defining their terms and how they were using them. After suffering through a couple of introvert books that failed to do that, I appreciated the attempt to bring academic rigor to a soft science.
Unfortunately, the style of writing was very laborious. There was a lot of repetition, the sentence structure needed editing, and word choices seemed awkward. Here's a good conclusion (but badly stated):
“The alternative is to approach the whole subject with our focus on what doesn’t happen, the non-events, the coughs that are just coughs, and the fires that go out. Then risk would no longer be about the deadly, unhappy, endings, it would also be about your chance of being fine if the risk didn’t, in the event, burn down the house.”
The authors try to get us to conceptualize it in terms of one death per million chances, characterized by a microMort. They then create three characters, an anxious, seemingly risk-adverse woman, Prudence; the guy in the middle, Norm; and an adventurous, risk-prone dude, Kelvin. I am sure you can see the problematic stuff right away, not the least of which is that using reductionist models doesn't help us understand a complex topic. This ended up being a serious detraction for everyone in the group read. For most of us, the solution was to skip over the vignettes. As I wrote back then, "I feel like I'm panning for gold in a stream--unlikely to be hugely successful, but enough to not quit entirely."
As Stephen pointed out, there are other sources for similar information that are much less frustrating to read. He suggested a couple of short articles at Psychology Today that have similar information. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/bl... This is definitely one to skip.
Many thanks to Allie, Anna , Left Coast Justin, Nataliya, Phil and Stephen for the buddy read! (links to their reviews)
The premise is great: although many of us like to think in terms of 'risky behavior' (famous childhood line: "If all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you jump too?"), the authors try to help the readers conceptualize what risk really is. Why do so many of us refuse to ride motorcycles, but willingly undergo general anesthesia? This is an excellent question, and while the statistics on death rates are officially the same, likely we have very different ideas about the risks entailed.
The beginning is great at laying out the errors of thinking.
"Probability--at least one version--begins with counting past events... It then uses this fact to predict a pattern....But then it goes a step further: from that general prediction it gives odds for what will happen to individuals...Thus it moves from past to future, from the mass to the individual."
Initially, the authors also did a nice job of defining their terms and how they were using them. After suffering through a couple of introvert books that failed to do that, I appreciated the attempt to bring academic rigor to a soft science.
Unfortunately, the style of writing was very laborious. There was a lot of repetition, the sentence structure needed editing, and word choices seemed awkward. Here's a good conclusion (but badly stated):
“The alternative is to approach the whole subject with our focus on what doesn’t happen, the non-events, the coughs that are just coughs, and the fires that go out. Then risk would no longer be about the deadly, unhappy, endings, it would also be about your chance of being fine if the risk didn’t, in the event, burn down the house.”
The authors try to get us to conceptualize it in terms of one death per million chances, characterized by a microMort. They then create three characters, an anxious, seemingly risk-adverse woman, Prudence; the guy in the middle, Norm; and an adventurous, risk-prone dude, Kelvin. I am sure you can see the problematic stuff right away, not the least of which is that using reductionist models doesn't help us understand a complex topic. This ended up being a serious detraction for everyone in the group read. For most of us, the solution was to skip over the vignettes. As I wrote back then, "I feel like I'm panning for gold in a stream--unlikely to be hugely successful, but enough to not quit entirely."
As Stephen pointed out, there are other sources for similar information that are much less frustrating to read. He suggested a couple of short articles at Psychology Today that have similar information. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/bl... This is definitely one to skip.
Many thanks to Allie, Anna , Left Coast Justin, Nataliya, Phil and Stephen for the buddy read! (links to their reviews)
February 8, 2023
This was a group read among several folks at Chaos Oasis (thanks all!), but we all struggled somewhat to finish it. The heart of The Norm Chronicles rests with a variety of statistical studies surrounding risk and chance alongside how humans interpret risk and chance (and yes, the two often differ dramatically). The topics are quite eclectic and arranged rather haphazardly, but include issues like violence, sex, transport, space and coincidence among many others.
I found the statistics fascinating (what are the odds of getting creamed by a meteorite? Learn this an many more things here!) but the presentation was fundamentally marred by the author's decision to introduce each topic with a vignette involving three 'people': Norm, the basic average guy, Prudence, who is extremely risk adverse and sees danger everywhere, and Kelvin, who has a complete disregard to danger/risk. I can only guess here, but I suppose these three characters were supposed to make the (at times rather dry) statistical information more humane; perhaps the reader could identify with one or the other, or at least recognize the type. Worked better, this might have done just that. Unfortunately, each of the many chapters began with some bizarre, and often mind-bending story concerning the three to introduce a new topic. Example: each one sees a bag under an empty seat in the subway. What would they do? This was one of the better introductions, but as the text wore on, these vignettes got old rather fast, leading me to just skip them to get at the data.
Make no mistake-- there is a wealth of great information to be found in Norm Chronicles that many may find fascinating (I did!). Actual risk versus perceived risk; how people react to recent news in their assessment of risk, etc. Great stuff! The problem for me was sorting through the Norm, Kelvin and Prudence tales, etc. to get at what was interesting. While YMMV, the pain induced sorting through endless Norm and pals vignettes was not really worth the gain the statistics provided. This eventually became a bathroom reader which I skimmed on occasion until the end. 2 disappointing stars.
I found the statistics fascinating (what are the odds of getting creamed by a meteorite? Learn this an many more things here!) but the presentation was fundamentally marred by the author's decision to introduce each topic with a vignette involving three 'people': Norm, the basic average guy, Prudence, who is extremely risk adverse and sees danger everywhere, and Kelvin, who has a complete disregard to danger/risk. I can only guess here, but I suppose these three characters were supposed to make the (at times rather dry) statistical information more humane; perhaps the reader could identify with one or the other, or at least recognize the type. Worked better, this might have done just that. Unfortunately, each of the many chapters began with some bizarre, and often mind-bending story concerning the three to introduce a new topic. Example: each one sees a bag under an empty seat in the subway. What would they do? This was one of the better introductions, but as the text wore on, these vignettes got old rather fast, leading me to just skip them to get at the data.
Make no mistake-- there is a wealth of great information to be found in Norm Chronicles that many may find fascinating (I did!). Actual risk versus perceived risk; how people react to recent news in their assessment of risk, etc. Great stuff! The problem for me was sorting through the Norm, Kelvin and Prudence tales, etc. to get at what was interesting. While YMMV, the pain induced sorting through endless Norm and pals vignettes was not really worth the gain the statistics provided. This eventually became a bathroom reader which I skimmed on occasion until the end. 2 disappointing stars.
March 23, 2023
Lots of interesting and new-to-me data, ideas and perspectives. I appreciated the introduction of units of risk-micromorts- to be able to compare different risks.
A MicroMort, is a 1-in-a-million chance of death. MicroMorts are cheery little units that help us see danger in terms of daily life. They are risks reduced to a micro or daily rate on a consistent scale. ...So this daily risk is about 1 MicroMort, a one-in-a-million chance of something horribly and fatally dramatic happening to Mr or Ms Average on an average day spent doing their average, everyday stuff. One MicroMort, in other words, is a benchmark for living normally.
The joy of the MicroMort – if joy is the word – is that it makes all kinds of risks comparable on the same simple scale.
All of these, and every other acute risk can be measured in MicroMorts (MMs). For example, the risk of death from a general anaesthetic in a non-emergency operation in the UK is roughly 1 in 100,000, meaning that in every 100,000 operations someone dies from the anaesthetic alone. This risk is not as intuitively easy to grasp or compare as it could be. But we can convert it into 10 MM, or 10 times the ordinary average risk of getting through the day without a violent or accidental death, or around 70 miles on a motor bike.
I was amazed that in historical times 30-40% of babies died before their 1st year, and that in recent times this decreased exponentially to around 4%. It was interesting when the authors compared risks (infant deaths, mortality in accidents etc) in different countries.
I really liked the concept of non-events: you can look at risks from the point of view of what happened, but also what didn't happen. And I was shocked at what the authors wrote about the success/not success of various health screening procedures.
I could also mention microlives and their help in comparing risks in their capacity to add or subtract from life expectancy.
I think the authors were quite good at explaining concepts, it's a pity one had to wade through stories of Norm, Kevlin and Prudence, the the characters invented by the authors to illustrate various (average, risk taking and risk-averse) behaviours. Without them, it could have been a good book!
Buddy read with Nataliya, carol, Phil, Allie and Steven (although the last two opted out after a while and I understand why).
A MicroMort, is a 1-in-a-million chance of death. MicroMorts are cheery little units that help us see danger in terms of daily life. They are risks reduced to a micro or daily rate on a consistent scale. ...So this daily risk is about 1 MicroMort, a one-in-a-million chance of something horribly and fatally dramatic happening to Mr or Ms Average on an average day spent doing their average, everyday stuff. One MicroMort, in other words, is a benchmark for living normally.
The joy of the MicroMort – if joy is the word – is that it makes all kinds of risks comparable on the same simple scale.
All of these, and every other acute risk can be measured in MicroMorts (MMs). For example, the risk of death from a general anaesthetic in a non-emergency operation in the UK is roughly 1 in 100,000, meaning that in every 100,000 operations someone dies from the anaesthetic alone. This risk is not as intuitively easy to grasp or compare as it could be. But we can convert it into 10 MM, or 10 times the ordinary average risk of getting through the day without a violent or accidental death, or around 70 miles on a motor bike.
I was amazed that in historical times 30-40% of babies died before their 1st year, and that in recent times this decreased exponentially to around 4%. It was interesting when the authors compared risks (infant deaths, mortality in accidents etc) in different countries.
I really liked the concept of non-events: you can look at risks from the point of view of what happened, but also what didn't happen. And I was shocked at what the authors wrote about the success/not success of various health screening procedures.
I could also mention microlives and their help in comparing risks in their capacity to add or subtract from life expectancy.
I think the authors were quite good at explaining concepts, it's a pity one had to wade through stories of Norm, Kevlin and Prudence, the the characters invented by the authors to illustrate various (average, risk taking and risk-averse) behaviours. Without them, it could have been a good book!
Buddy read with Nataliya, carol, Phil, Allie and Steven (although the last two opted out after a while and I understand why).
January 11, 2015
This book is about quantifying risk, plain and simple. While those two buzzwords may induce a high-flying eye roll, I can't think of a better way to explain what Blastland's and Spiegelhalter's book attempts to do. Let's put it this way: as a parent, do you fear that your children will get kidnapped? Do you think skydiving is dangerous? How much does your diet truly affect how long you will live?
The Norm Chronicles attempts to answer these questions by using two statistical units: the MicroMort and the MicroLife. The Micromort is a neat little tool that symbolizes the inherent risk in an activity or behavior. If you do nothing in a day, simply wake up, eat and sleep, then your chance of dying is 1 in a million, or 1 MicroMort. With each activity, behavior or incident, that probability increases by varying degrees. If your breakfast is nothing but bacon, then you add a few MicroMorts; if you drive recklessly then you add several more; if you have a stressful job, decide to bungee jump or spend a bibulous night at the bar, you add more and more.
Each chapter deals with a different part of our daily lives and frames it through the lens of three different characters. There's Norm, who is perfectly average in almost every way. He doesn't try outlandish activities nor does he stay at home still. There's Prudence, who constantly worries about every possible danger, choosing safety and caution in every instance. Lastly there's Kelvin, who is a licentious daredevil, womanizer and ne'er-do-well. Each looks at risk differently, but the authors ultimately take their experiences and crunch the numbers.
The second tool, the MicroLife, is a 30-minute span of time. Statistically, we have a finite amount of MicroLives and we can do whatever we want with them. However, each activity we do can either add or subtract MicroLives. In a 24-hour day, eating healthily and exercising can mean we only used up 23 MicroLives, in essence "banking" more time. If we eat only red meat, sugar-charged soda and sit at home all day, we may have used up 25 MicroLives, thus borrowing from our twilight years.
If you're at all interested in statistics, the dangers of everyday life (or lack thereof), and more insight into the cliché that you are more likely to die on the way to the airport than flying, this book is a must read.
The Norm Chronicles attempts to answer these questions by using two statistical units: the MicroMort and the MicroLife. The Micromort is a neat little tool that symbolizes the inherent risk in an activity or behavior. If you do nothing in a day, simply wake up, eat and sleep, then your chance of dying is 1 in a million, or 1 MicroMort. With each activity, behavior or incident, that probability increases by varying degrees. If your breakfast is nothing but bacon, then you add a few MicroMorts; if you drive recklessly then you add several more; if you have a stressful job, decide to bungee jump or spend a bibulous night at the bar, you add more and more.
Each chapter deals with a different part of our daily lives and frames it through the lens of three different characters. There's Norm, who is perfectly average in almost every way. He doesn't try outlandish activities nor does he stay at home still. There's Prudence, who constantly worries about every possible danger, choosing safety and caution in every instance. Lastly there's Kelvin, who is a licentious daredevil, womanizer and ne'er-do-well. Each looks at risk differently, but the authors ultimately take their experiences and crunch the numbers.
The second tool, the MicroLife, is a 30-minute span of time. Statistically, we have a finite amount of MicroLives and we can do whatever we want with them. However, each activity we do can either add or subtract MicroLives. In a 24-hour day, eating healthily and exercising can mean we only used up 23 MicroLives, in essence "banking" more time. If we eat only red meat, sugar-charged soda and sit at home all day, we may have used up 25 MicroLives, thus borrowing from our twilight years.
If you're at all interested in statistics, the dangers of everyday life (or lack thereof), and more insight into the cliché that you are more likely to die on the way to the airport than flying, this book is a must read.
September 20, 2018
Not at all whatI expected. I assumed this was one of those books that tells you to stop worrying about certain things happening eg plane crash as they’re really unlikely and start worrying about others eg car crash. Actually it was a much more philosophical book about how we think about risks and how statistics might or might not help that thinking. I would have given it five stars but I wasn’t that keen on the stories about the characters that started each chapter.
March 14, 2014
if numbers, statistics, facts, figures, averages, charts, graphs, and notions of risk, chance, and probability are your thing, the norm chronicles: stories and numbers about danger and death may well be the most intriguing book you'll encounter in some time. authors michael blastland and david spiegelhalter explore nearly every aspect of human life, parsing out the likelihoods that any number of occurrences will come to pass over the course of a human lifetime (from infancy to old age).
creatively and craftily constructed, each chapter of the the norm chronicles begins with a demonstrative short story about different approaches and reactions an individual may have to a particular situation. with aptly named characters (norm, prudence, and the kevlin brothers), these brief stories preface each subject with a real-world scenario - some mundane and others extraordinary. 27 chapters cover a wealth of potentialities, considering the likes of infancy, violence, accidents, vaccination, coincidence, sex, drugs, gambling, transportation, extreme sports, lifestyle, health, radiation, crime, unemployment, surgery, and money, amongst many others.
with abundant humor, philosophical musings, and lucid explanations, blastland and spiegelhalter do a remarkable job of exploring and conveying the risks of modern living (and dying). exhaustively researched (with over 20 pages of notes and sources), the norm chronicles will be endlessly fascinating to some and utterly terrifying to others. as no two lives could possibly be the same, the book doesn't seek to codify life's myriad risks, but instead interprets the data points and encourages more analytical and critical thinking.
accessible, entertaining, and endlessly absorbing, the norm chronicles might allay your fears or lead you to greater worry. what it will almost certainly do is reframe the way you reflect upon risk, chance, danger, and opportunity. the math, as its always wont to do, reveals some truly startling insights: not the least of which being the fact that eating a single banana offers a does of radiation equivalent to going through an airport security scanner one time. with their book, blastland and spiegelhalter have created a work that is truly both exceptional and engrossing.
creatively and craftily constructed, each chapter of the the norm chronicles begins with a demonstrative short story about different approaches and reactions an individual may have to a particular situation. with aptly named characters (norm, prudence, and the kevlin brothers), these brief stories preface each subject with a real-world scenario - some mundane and others extraordinary. 27 chapters cover a wealth of potentialities, considering the likes of infancy, violence, accidents, vaccination, coincidence, sex, drugs, gambling, transportation, extreme sports, lifestyle, health, radiation, crime, unemployment, surgery, and money, amongst many others.
with abundant humor, philosophical musings, and lucid explanations, blastland and spiegelhalter do a remarkable job of exploring and conveying the risks of modern living (and dying). exhaustively researched (with over 20 pages of notes and sources), the norm chronicles will be endlessly fascinating to some and utterly terrifying to others. as no two lives could possibly be the same, the book doesn't seek to codify life's myriad risks, but instead interprets the data points and encourages more analytical and critical thinking.
accessible, entertaining, and endlessly absorbing, the norm chronicles might allay your fears or lead you to greater worry. what it will almost certainly do is reframe the way you reflect upon risk, chance, danger, and opportunity. the math, as its always wont to do, reveals some truly startling insights: not the least of which being the fact that eating a single banana offers a does of radiation equivalent to going through an airport security scanner one time. with their book, blastland and spiegelhalter have created a work that is truly both exceptional and engrossing.
numbers and probabilities tend to show the final account, the risks to humans en masse, chance in aggregate summarized for whole populations. these numbers reveal hypnotic patterns and rich information. but they are indifferent to fate and its drama. numbers can't care and don't care; life and death are percentages, unafraid of danger, shrugging at survival, stating only what's risky, what's not, or to what degree, on average. they are silent about how much any of this, right down to a love or fear of sausages or ski slopes, matters...
danger is the the shark in shallow waters, the pills in the cupboard, or a grand piano teetering on a window ledge while children skip below. it is the diet too rich in cream, the base-jump, the booze, the pedestrian and the double-decker, driving a car fast, or the threat of weirder weather. it is the spills and the thrills. in other words, danger is everywhere and always. and in all cases we find those same two faces: one impassive, formal, calculating, the other full of human hopes and fears.
the unusual aim of this book is to see both at once. we hope to show people and their stories and the numbers, together. we set out to do this mainly to explore how these two perspectives compare, but along the way we found that this aim raised an awkward question: are the two faces of risk compatible? can risk claim to be true to the numbers and to you at the same time? we will present both sides as we try to find out, but we will tell you our conclusion now.
it can't. for people, probability doesn't exist.
January 27, 2019
Not really my cup of tea. It seems like a clever idea, each chapter takes a different class of risk and starts out with a story of Norm, Prudence and Kelvin - and their radically different approaches to life's risks and hazards - then follows with a more detailed discussion of the numbers and the data. Charts and tables abound, but ... the detail just never seemed to get detailed enough for me, and the Norm chronicles themselves felt more like a distraction that kept breaking the flow of the rest of the book. It seemed to take me ages to finish, a d I heaved a big sigh of relief when I closed it for the final time - a real shame as so many other people seem to have really enjoyed it.
January 29, 2015
There may be some bias in an actuary reviewing a book on mortality statistics but I will partly tackle that by putting my cards on the table. I am pretty strong with statistics and don't shy away from them. This book tries the novel tactic of beginning each chapter with a kind of narrative element walking through the lives of a risk averse, neutral, and risk disposed character. This was neat in the first chapter but I quickly got either bored or confused with the ensuing uses. These vignettes take up a full quarter to third of the book and are only semi-skippable as the chapter after each sometimes refers to them. I found them bothersome.
Where the book really shines is in comparing risks. Concise tables and choice gems transmit interesting facts like that horseback riding and ecstasy clock in at similar levels of danger. A year of marijuana usage is about as dangerous as a single weekend road trip and lumberjacks should receive an incredible amount of hazard pay.
The book also slices morbidity statistics (things that may influence life span but not quite kill you) in a compelling way, comparing each action to how much time it'll shave off your life. It was sobering to see that my current weight level will knock some 15 years off my life. I have some work to do.
The periodic digressions into the nature of chance and probability were uninteresting to me as they raised little new and seemed to show a fumbling attempt by the authors to either be philosophical or thorough.
The book is fine. Borrow it from someone, thumb through it, or just google for a table of micromorts.
Where the book really shines is in comparing risks. Concise tables and choice gems transmit interesting facts like that horseback riding and ecstasy clock in at similar levels of danger. A year of marijuana usage is about as dangerous as a single weekend road trip and lumberjacks should receive an incredible amount of hazard pay.
The book also slices morbidity statistics (things that may influence life span but not quite kill you) in a compelling way, comparing each action to how much time it'll shave off your life. It was sobering to see that my current weight level will knock some 15 years off my life. I have some work to do.
The periodic digressions into the nature of chance and probability were uninteresting to me as they raised little new and seemed to show a fumbling attempt by the authors to either be philosophical or thorough.
The book is fine. Borrow it from someone, thumb through it, or just google for a table of micromorts.
September 8, 2013
This is a fascinating book about risk, the probability of risk in given situations, and how humans react to the idea of risk. It takes as it’s basis three characters: Norm, a man who is average in every sense of the word, and calculates risk according to the statistics; Prudence, who worries incessantly and excessively about everything – for her, the worst case scenario is also the likeliest; and Kelvin, who is arrogant and irresponsible and seems happy to take risks in all aspects of his life. These characters are placed in different settings, as the book explores the statistical chance of something bad happening, in relation to the public perception of risk. For example, scary headlines that declare things like ‘Eating such-and-such every day leads to a 20% increase in your likelihood of getting cancer.’ Scary indeed, but the book shows what that 20% risk actually works out at.
The book is written in easy to understand language, and is often amusing. It acknowledges that it’s all very well saying there’s a one in a million chance of a specific something bad happening, but that’s little comfort to the person that is that one in a million. Nonetheless, I found it oddly reassuring to be able to understand why certain situations are so scary, yet when looked at objectively, they actually pose little real danger.
It explains how probability is calculated (and discusses the reliability – or not – of the numbers), and is full of interesting anecdotes. All in all, a thoroughly enjoyable book, on a fascinating subject. Recommended.
The book is written in easy to understand language, and is often amusing. It acknowledges that it’s all very well saying there’s a one in a million chance of a specific something bad happening, but that’s little comfort to the person that is that one in a million. Nonetheless, I found it oddly reassuring to be able to understand why certain situations are so scary, yet when looked at objectively, they actually pose little real danger.
It explains how probability is calculated (and discusses the reliability – or not – of the numbers), and is full of interesting anecdotes. All in all, a thoroughly enjoyable book, on a fascinating subject. Recommended.
April 29, 2015
I really do admire the authors' attempt to make facts and figures accessible to the modern reader via a narrative of sorts, which is what drew me to start reading this book in the first place. However, after a while, it just felt like a whole bunch of statistics and numbers, with only a few accounts and narratives thrown in. Maybe that in itself reveals something about the non-statistician in me (though I will say that I have a soft spot for mathematics), but I have a feeling I'm not the only one. I found myself skipping the later sections of the book, stopping to only read the anecdotes. Also, I thought that Kevin's thoughts (the risky antagonist of the book) were quite poorly done. The short abrupt sentences that made his thought processes made it incredibly hard to read. Overall, a commendable effort, but I don't think I would recommend it to anyone.
March 21, 2018
Useful facts and new insights, struggle with story-writing
This book brings along many important aspects about how risk should be adressed in common life situations. The author chose to use a cast of fictional characters as story vehicles in attempt to make the subject of statistics less boring. Unfortunately, this part was less successful. If you are not new to the topic, you will find many useful insights in almost each chapter, otherwise start with something more catchy. The book provides quite a lot of numbers and situations described seems to be extensively researched making the work very credible.
This book brings along many important aspects about how risk should be adressed in common life situations. The author chose to use a cast of fictional characters as story vehicles in attempt to make the subject of statistics less boring. Unfortunately, this part was less successful. If you are not new to the topic, you will find many useful insights in almost each chapter, otherwise start with something more catchy. The book provides quite a lot of numbers and situations described seems to be extensively researched making the work very credible.
Want to read
March 9, 2019Instantly charmed - imagine a technically literate Zen and the Art of Motorcycle.
There's a Pratchettian lightness and gravity to it (it's a lot like the best of The Science of Discworld, in fact - fiction and nonfiction, tragic comedy, grandeur and quotidian life).
One of the most important genres is the romance of technology, the emotional translation of rational truths, e.g. the Law of Large Numbers:
The micromort and microlife concepts (the latter invented herein) could seriously improve people's lives. by allowing precise prioritisation. Without them, without the help of reason in general, we are doomed to have the wrong emotions, or the right emotions with the wrong strength, or the right emotions for bad reasons.
Danger is the shark in shallow waters, the pills in the cupboard or a grand piano teetering on a window ledge while children skip below. It is the diet too rich in cream, the base-jump, the booze, the pedestrian and the double-decker, driving a car fast or the threat of weirder weather. It is the spills and the thrills. In other words, danger is everywhere and always. And in all cases we find those same two faces: one impassive, formal, calculating, the other full of human hopes and fears.
The unusual aim of this book is to see both at once. We hope to show people and their stories and the numbers, together. We set out to do this mainly to explore how these two perspectives compare, but along the way we found that this raised an awkward question: are the two faces of risk compatible? Can risk claim to be true to the numbers and to you at the same time? We will present both sides as we try to find out, but we will tell you our conclusion now. It can’t. For people, probability doesn’t exist.
There's a Pratchettian lightness and gravity to it (it's a lot like the best of The Science of Discworld, in fact - fiction and nonfiction, tragic comedy, grandeur and quotidian life).
Norm's habits are ordinary, he likes a nice cup of tea but not too many, wears M&S trousers and invites little risk from hot passion or daring. Even so, someone or something wants him dead. Norm’s entire, blameless life is a story of mortal danger, as to some extent is yours, and ours.
One of the most important genres is the romance of technology, the emotional translation of rational truths, e.g. the Law of Large Numbers:
from above, the course of human destiny is often clear. To individuals below, it is a maze of stories. It is as if there are two forces at the same time: one at the big scale pulling towards certainty, the other pushing individuals towards uncertainty. There’s a word to describe this balance between the patterns of populations and the stumbling of a single soul, a word first used in its modern sense only a few hundred years ago: probability.
The micromort and microlife concepts (the latter invented herein) could seriously improve people's lives. by allowing precise prioritisation. Without them, without the help of reason in general, we are doomed to have the wrong emotions, or the right emotions with the wrong strength, or the right emotions for bad reasons.
February 27, 2022
A great book if you like to look beyond numbers.
They discuss - both conceptually and statistically - probabilities, chance, risk and the varying perceptions we can have of them. More than that, it’s quite philosophical about numbers and risk.
Some elements I found particularly interesting to read about:
- the level to which real statistics of things people typically worry about vary compared to the magnitude of worry!
- how the authors find a way of ‘presenting’ the risk of extreme, everyday / ‘unusual’, ‘usual’ activities
- the irreconcilable nature of averages when we look at risk as individuals.
- the power of framing of risk and statistics (particularly in the media)
They illustrate and try to add flavour to facts about risk with short stories at the beginning of each chapter which are based on three characters throughout the book - each of them have a different attitude towards risk which we can relate to. I didn’t find the stories added too much extra otherwise would’ve rated it with 5 stars
They discuss - both conceptually and statistically - probabilities, chance, risk and the varying perceptions we can have of them. More than that, it’s quite philosophical about numbers and risk.
Some elements I found particularly interesting to read about:
- the level to which real statistics of things people typically worry about vary compared to the magnitude of worry!
- how the authors find a way of ‘presenting’ the risk of extreme, everyday / ‘unusual’, ‘usual’ activities
- the irreconcilable nature of averages when we look at risk as individuals.
- the power of framing of risk and statistics (particularly in the media)
They illustrate and try to add flavour to facts about risk with short stories at the beginning of each chapter which are based on three characters throughout the book - each of them have a different attitude towards risk which we can relate to. I didn’t find the stories added too much extra otherwise would’ve rated it with 5 stars
October 5, 2015
Really 3.5
I wanted to like this book better than I did.
The explicit purpose of this book was to combine storytelling and risk assessment. The writing is quite good. But I found too much philosophy and not enough hard-headed probability.
Each chapter tries to address a different aspect of life. And each chapter starts with a little story about one of their stock characters: Norm (who craves, tries to understand, and believes in all the probabilities), Prudence (who is extremely risk-averse), and Kelvin (who gets a rush from risky behavior).
I liked the use of "micoromorts" to allow comparisons to show us (for example) that a day of scuba diving is about as dangerous as 500 miles (or whatever) of riding a motorcycle.
The data was great, but there was too much wheel-spinning "analysis."
I wanted to like this book better than I did.
The explicit purpose of this book was to combine storytelling and risk assessment. The writing is quite good. But I found too much philosophy and not enough hard-headed probability.
Each chapter tries to address a different aspect of life. And each chapter starts with a little story about one of their stock characters: Norm (who craves, tries to understand, and believes in all the probabilities), Prudence (who is extremely risk-averse), and Kelvin (who gets a rush from risky behavior).
I liked the use of "micoromorts" to allow comparisons to show us (for example) that a day of scuba diving is about as dangerous as 500 miles (or whatever) of riding a motorcycle.
The data was great, but there was too much wheel-spinning "analysis."
May 2, 2015
A pretty enjoyable book that looks at inherent risks and dangers in every aspect of life through the sometimes absurd lens of it's fictional characters (Norm, Prudence, and the Kelvin bros) and evaluated using MicroMorts, a measurement which means a 1 in a million chance of dying. Manages to be both entertaining with its structure and fairly enlightening with it's study of chance, probability and statistics. Can be easily recommended to almost anyone.
September 25, 2013
As much a book on psychology as statistics. Why do we consider two equal risks such as the radiation dose from a CT scan and standing 2.4km from the explosion of the Hiroshima atomic bomb so differently? A very informative and entertaining book. Should be required reading for all politicians.
December 7, 2015
Unfortunately but not surprisingly the stats get a little dry. However it's a great wake up call to stop making risk judgments based upon what is available in the media.
March 19, 2021
This is a clear, interesting and very accessible account of statistics and our human perception of risk. The authors introduce each chapter with mini-stories which they then use to discuss the underlying issues and interpretations of data.
The book contains some very interesting historical data. We learn that until about 1600 around a third of babies died at birth. By 1921 it was down to 8% and then 4% by 1945. Today in the UK the figure is 0.5%. However, across the world this still means that around 5.4m babies died in childbirth in 2010 (Kindle 8%).
In a later chapter we learn that around 3,300 assaults were recorded on trains in the UK in 2010. This is approximately 1 in 400,000 journeys, meaning that the average person who travels every day on a train can expect to be assaulted once every thousand years (41%). However, the impact of high profile media stories of train assaults give people a very different perception of the risks they face.
The book is understandably very UK centric in its data. However it does explore issues from around the world. We learn about smallpox being eradicated in Somalia (17%). We also hear a sad story of the aftermath of 9/11 in USA. Fear of flying led to increased car journies and, as a result, around an extra 1500 additional road deaths were recorded in the year following 9/11.
Readers who enjoy quirky details will find many examples in the book. I was particularly struck to hear the extraordinary strategy used in 1803 to convey a smallpox vaccine to the Americas. It consisted of eleven orphan children being infected one after another with cow-pox on the ship, so that as each child got over the illness there was still a live strain surviving when the boat finally reached its destination (18%).
A minor issue which may trouble some readers is the style of the stories which open each chapter. They are written in a breathless and almost stream-of-consciousness style. For example, chapter 3 opens with Harry the hawk watching a scene: “people about their business. Vehicles, moving and stopping. Trees in the breeze. Children in danger.” (Kindle 9%). Readers who are less appreciative of that writing style may find the book less attractive.
Overall I enjoyed the book and found it informative.
The book contains some very interesting historical data. We learn that until about 1600 around a third of babies died at birth. By 1921 it was down to 8% and then 4% by 1945. Today in the UK the figure is 0.5%. However, across the world this still means that around 5.4m babies died in childbirth in 2010 (Kindle 8%).
In a later chapter we learn that around 3,300 assaults were recorded on trains in the UK in 2010. This is approximately 1 in 400,000 journeys, meaning that the average person who travels every day on a train can expect to be assaulted once every thousand years (41%). However, the impact of high profile media stories of train assaults give people a very different perception of the risks they face.
The book is understandably very UK centric in its data. However it does explore issues from around the world. We learn about smallpox being eradicated in Somalia (17%). We also hear a sad story of the aftermath of 9/11 in USA. Fear of flying led to increased car journies and, as a result, around an extra 1500 additional road deaths were recorded in the year following 9/11.
Readers who enjoy quirky details will find many examples in the book. I was particularly struck to hear the extraordinary strategy used in 1803 to convey a smallpox vaccine to the Americas. It consisted of eleven orphan children being infected one after another with cow-pox on the ship, so that as each child got over the illness there was still a live strain surviving when the boat finally reached its destination (18%).
A minor issue which may trouble some readers is the style of the stories which open each chapter. They are written in a breathless and almost stream-of-consciousness style. For example, chapter 3 opens with Harry the hawk watching a scene: “people about their business. Vehicles, moving and stopping. Trees in the breeze. Children in danger.” (Kindle 9%). Readers who are less appreciative of that writing style may find the book less attractive.
Overall I enjoyed the book and found it informative.
May 5, 2020
I felt this book was ultimately a disappointment, not as the authors feared, through statistical boredom and fatigue, but because of the wackier elements of Norm, Kelvin and Prudence which seemed to get in the way of the more interesting stuff.
Slightly unusually for a popular science book, this consisted of nearly 30 chapters of ten pages, and it did feel brief at times, with some topics covered so thinly you wondered why they had their own chapter. As many of the chapters had a sort of sketch at the start, it left a few of them a bit thin of content. As for the sketches themselves, they were not to my taste. The idea was to suggest that we can't separate mathematical probabilities of risks from the more emotional scenarios that influence our decisions, and this was well argued, but rather than the three characters adding the context, their caricatures just seemed like a repetitive, unfunny joke.
And I didn't feel there was a need for it, as most chapters were not lists of mortality risks, but a considered discussion. There was more personality than in similar books, in quite an informal style, with anecdotes about doctors as well as personal experience. Some of the psychological aspects were really interesting to me and I'd like to explore them further, though I think there was scope to expand on many topics in this book. Perhaps the authors wanted to produce their own work rather than writing another retelling of famous findings, and I liked their use of microlives and micromorts and their explanations of certain concepts. And while the authors did say this was intended for short bursts, this was not something you'd dip in an out of, as the chapters weren't standalone and referenced previous concepts, as well as having a timeline for the characters.
A book that should have been right up my alley, based on subject and writer in the case of Spiegelhalter, just didn't work for me. It was worth reading for some of its more interesting elements, but it didn't go into enough detail for me to have really enjoyed it, and there was too much of the comedy.
Slightly unusually for a popular science book, this consisted of nearly 30 chapters of ten pages, and it did feel brief at times, with some topics covered so thinly you wondered why they had their own chapter. As many of the chapters had a sort of sketch at the start, it left a few of them a bit thin of content. As for the sketches themselves, they were not to my taste. The idea was to suggest that we can't separate mathematical probabilities of risks from the more emotional scenarios that influence our decisions, and this was well argued, but rather than the three characters adding the context, their caricatures just seemed like a repetitive, unfunny joke.
And I didn't feel there was a need for it, as most chapters were not lists of mortality risks, but a considered discussion. There was more personality than in similar books, in quite an informal style, with anecdotes about doctors as well as personal experience. Some of the psychological aspects were really interesting to me and I'd like to explore them further, though I think there was scope to expand on many topics in this book. Perhaps the authors wanted to produce their own work rather than writing another retelling of famous findings, and I liked their use of microlives and micromorts and their explanations of certain concepts. And while the authors did say this was intended for short bursts, this was not something you'd dip in an out of, as the chapters weren't standalone and referenced previous concepts, as well as having a timeline for the characters.
A book that should have been right up my alley, based on subject and writer in the case of Spiegelhalter, just didn't work for me. It was worth reading for some of its more interesting elements, but it didn't go into enough detail for me to have really enjoyed it, and there was too much of the comedy.
April 9, 2019
It is a sort of oddball book about how to more intelligently conceive of and react to statistical probabilities, in this case, statistics relating to the possibility of accidental death or maiming from going about doing normal things, like riding in a car to the airport and taking a flight across the country. Having sex. Getting your kid–or yourself–vaccinated. Dying from radiation exposure. Undergoing surgery. Undergoing screening tests for diseases. And so on. The authors are very clever about all this, and go through their explanations of what the study of the numbers–how many deaths per year out of so many in the population–really suggests about how we assess risks to ourselves.
The structural premise overall of the book was to posit three characters, who represent three common attitudes to awareness of risk of an activity. Norm looks for the practical interpretations of "dangerous" events, and thinks carefully about where he stands in the spectrum of possibility. Prudence is sure that any possible harm that could come to her or hers, from horseback riding to being killed in a car accident, to getting fired, will indeed happen to her; she seeks to protect herself, despite how small the chances are that she will indeed be affected. Kelvin is heedless, and if he even is exposed to the statistical odds of a risky activity, if it seems to be fun, he'll try it at least once.
On one hand, the information offered here is pretty dry, numerical and often in need of a statistics course to fully understand. But the authors are aware of the dangers of writing about such material, and do a fine job of making jokes, phrasing concepts wittily and using his three characters to characterize and humanize responses to such dry material.
The structural premise overall of the book was to posit three characters, who represent three common attitudes to awareness of risk of an activity. Norm looks for the practical interpretations of "dangerous" events, and thinks carefully about where he stands in the spectrum of possibility. Prudence is sure that any possible harm that could come to her or hers, from horseback riding to being killed in a car accident, to getting fired, will indeed happen to her; she seeks to protect herself, despite how small the chances are that she will indeed be affected. Kelvin is heedless, and if he even is exposed to the statistical odds of a risky activity, if it seems to be fun, he'll try it at least once.
On one hand, the information offered here is pretty dry, numerical and often in need of a statistics course to fully understand. But the authors are aware of the dangers of writing about such material, and do a fine job of making jokes, phrasing concepts wittily and using his three characters to characterize and humanize responses to such dry material.
September 19, 2019
Last book in a 2019 summer book club.
Usually these kinds of books are very dry, however the authors get around this by following the lives of three friends Norm, Kelvin and Prudence who provide short vignettes that mainly serve as a human face to the topic the chapter intends to discuss. It's an interesting way to do it, and I think it works pretty well. Norm is average, Kelvin* is risky, Prudence is prudent.
Even though the book proceeds linearly through the lives of the three friends, most of the chapters can be read independently, since they're about say 'the risk of obesity' or 'the dangers inherent in driving' rather than part of an overarching narrative. Most of the chapters are interesting on their own, but the lack of a narrative makes this a hard book to read in one go - and the numbers heavy content means none of it would stick with you if you read it that way.
The authors conclude with an interpretation of probability that I really liked. When you get a forecast, say 12% chance of heart attack, you should interpret that just as saying that given the information the doctor had, 12% is the odds a bookie would give of a heart attack. Converting %'s into betting odds is a really cool trick to recast probabilities.
P.S. this book had one of my favorite lines ever, "I would have tried harder but for the effort."
* cool nod to the temperature scale, which is a scale of increasing random vibrations
Usually these kinds of books are very dry, however the authors get around this by following the lives of three friends Norm, Kelvin and Prudence who provide short vignettes that mainly serve as a human face to the topic the chapter intends to discuss. It's an interesting way to do it, and I think it works pretty well. Norm is average, Kelvin* is risky, Prudence is prudent.
Even though the book proceeds linearly through the lives of the three friends, most of the chapters can be read independently, since they're about say 'the risk of obesity' or 'the dangers inherent in driving' rather than part of an overarching narrative. Most of the chapters are interesting on their own, but the lack of a narrative makes this a hard book to read in one go - and the numbers heavy content means none of it would stick with you if you read it that way.
The authors conclude with an interpretation of probability that I really liked. When you get a forecast, say 12% chance of heart attack, you should interpret that just as saying that given the information the doctor had, 12% is the odds a bookie would give of a heart attack. Converting %'s into betting odds is a really cool trick to recast probabilities.
P.S. this book had one of my favorite lines ever, "I would have tried harder but for the effort."
* cool nod to the temperature scale, which is a scale of increasing random vibrations
June 21, 2020
There is lots of interesting statistical information in here and also some interesting anecdotes. However, it is let down by two problems. First, the framing device, which uses some characters, Norm, Prudence and the Kelvins, to tell intruding stories is riddled with lazy stereotypes and bad writing. As a result it becomes tiresome and ineffective. Second, the big scientific concept of micromorts and microlives doesn't really do the job it's meant to of making risk easier to understand. As someone with a high level of statistical literacy, I still found myself having to think about what it meant every time it was mentioned. The authors already seemed unconvinced by their own idea as it faded in and out of the book without every really feeling like they had committed to it. Ultimately, the standard statistical approaches were usually easier to grasp.
August 16, 2022
Who should read this book:
Anyone curious about the veracity of all the stats flying around every day
My thoughts:
I really liked a couple aspects of this book. The unit they invent to represent a one in a million chance of dying—the Microsoft—is super useful, as is the fact that they calibrate it as roughly equal to the chance of dying from unnatural causes on any given day in adulthood in the US/UK. This reference point then serves as a meaningful frame for other risks. I also really like their evenhandedness with different approaches to risk, and the message that—for me, anyway—suggests worrying a little less and living a little more in the moment.
All that said, the book heavily dragged for me as it covered so many different areas of risk. That’s what brought the rating down for me.
Anyone curious about the veracity of all the stats flying around every day
My thoughts:
I really liked a couple aspects of this book. The unit they invent to represent a one in a million chance of dying—the Microsoft—is super useful, as is the fact that they calibrate it as roughly equal to the chance of dying from unnatural causes on any given day in adulthood in the US/UK. This reference point then serves as a meaningful frame for other risks. I also really like their evenhandedness with different approaches to risk, and the message that—for me, anyway—suggests worrying a little less and living a little more in the moment.
All that said, the book heavily dragged for me as it covered so many different areas of risk. That’s what brought the rating down for me.
August 1, 2020
Fun read! A captivating parade of statistics and stories. The micromorts and microlives made it possible to connect all the types of risks throughout the book, turning each chapter from isolated islands of data to pieces of a larger puzzle.
The book points out how our way of objectively quantifying risks does not match our subjective feelings about risks. Unfortunately, I feel the book only scratches the surface of how to understand or handle these psychological or philosophical inconsistencies. What makes us feel what we feel when we think about different dangers or chances?
The book points out how our way of objectively quantifying risks does not match our subjective feelings about risks. Unfortunately, I feel the book only scratches the surface of how to understand or handle these psychological or philosophical inconsistencies. What makes us feel what we feel when we think about different dangers or chances?
February 28, 2018
This book shows you a new way of thinking about your habits and how dangerous life is in general. For me it was really interesting, for the numbers were underlined by a story. Yet you shouldn't read the book of you aren't interested in even some mathematics.
July 21, 2018
I was a little disappointed by this book. For some reason it just didn’t grab me. Whilst I quite like statistics, this one seemed to drown you in them without enough narrative padding to make the digestible.
In the end it seems just being moderately sensible is the way to live a long life.
In the end it seems just being moderately sensible is the way to live a long life.
January 17, 2021
Pragmatic treatment of probability and risk
Very wide ranging - addressing broad swath of topics but putting them in context of notional personal risk. Great popular science but we'll anchored.
Very wide ranging - addressing broad swath of topics but putting them in context of notional personal risk. Great popular science but we'll anchored.
January 5, 2023
The author discusses risk and death using measuring units and opens a fascinating story of three fictional although realistic in nature characters whom take on risks
very differently with different outcomes.
very differently with different outcomes.
April 3, 2018
Entertaining.
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