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The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation
Looking for ways to handle the transition to a digital economy Robots, artificial intelligence, and driverless cars are no longer things of the distant future. They are with us today and will become increasingly common in coming years, along with virtual reality and digital personal assistants. As these tools advance deeper into everyday use, they raise the question—how will they transform society, the economy, and politics? If companies need fewer workers due to automation and robotics, what happens to those who once held those jobs and don't have the skills for new jobs? And since many social benefits are delivered through jobs, how are people outside the workforce for a lengthy period of time going to earn a living and get health care and social benefits? Looking past today's headlines, political scientist and cultural observer Darrell M. West argues that society needs to rethink the concept of jobs, reconfigure the social contract, move toward a system of lifetime learning, and develop a new kind of politics that can deal with economic dislocations. With the U.S. governance system in shambles because of political polarization and hyper-partisanship, dealing creatively with the transition to a fully digital economy will vex political leaders and complicate the adoption of remedies that could ease the transition pain. It is imperative that we make major adjustments in how we think about work and the social contract in order to prevent society from spiraling out of control. This book presents a number of proposals to help people deal with the transition from an industrial to a digital economy. We must broaden the concept of employment to include volunteering and parenting and pay greater attention to the opportunities for leisure time. New forms of identity will be possible when the "job" no longer defines people's sense of personal meaning, and they engage in a broader range of activities. Workers will need help throughout their lifetimes to acquire new skills and develop new job capabilities. Political reforms will be necessary to reduce polarization and restore civility so there can be open and healthy debate about where responsibility lies for economic well-being. This book is an important contribution to a discussion about tomorrow—one that needs to take place today.
223 pages, Kindle Edition
First published May 15, 2018
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June 15, 2018
I read this as an ePub and so can’t give page numbers for the quotes I’m going to provide at the end. I’m not American and don’t really know very much about the Brooking’s institute – I had assumed it would be a sort of right-wing think-tank, but it clearly isn’t quite that. This presents many of the problems about to overwhelm us and then gives us some options to avoid being overwhelmed – this is mostly concerned with the US, the take away message here, given sub-plot, is ‘expect to be overwhelmed’. Basically, if things are to become better then there will need to be major reforms in the US political system and also in its welfare system – so that people aren’t crushed for the outrageous crime of being poor. That none of these reforms are even remotely likely might be enough to stop you reading this book -which would be a pity, but quite understandable. None of this would matter if the US didn’t have nuclear weapons, but it is a nation that is very unlikely to crumble and fall all on its own and given its preference for violence as the solution to all problems, we in the rest of the world can only watch on through the gaps in our fingers as they cover our faces.
I have only drawn quotes from the first two-thirds of this, since the end is mostly concerned with US politics, and that is all too depressing for words.
“Andrew Puzder, former CEO of CKE Restaurants, the parent company of Hardee’s, praised digital devices over human workers. Referring to the former, he said, “They’re always polite, they always upsell, they never take a vacation, they never show up late, there’s never a slip-and-fall, or an age, sex or race discrimination case.”
“McDonald’s, meanwhile, has announced plans to install “digital ordering kiosks” in place of cashiers at 2,500 of its American restaurants and mobile ordering at 14,000 of its stores. Based on these technologies, market analysts in 2017 raised their 2018 growth projections for the firm from 2 percent to 3 percent. McDonald’s believes that digital tools cut costs, improve productivity, and reduce the chain’s reliance on human employees. The corporation’s officers predicted that the new technologies would lift the company’s stock price by 17.5 percent in 2018”
“Matt McMullen makes “Real Dolls” that retail for $5,000 and have audio, sensory, and physical movements built into them. At his Abyss Creations in San Marcos, California, he is working on “Harmony,” a silicone sex toy. According to the firm, “Harmony smiles, blinks and frowns. She can hold a conversation, tell jokes and quote Shakespeare. She will remember your birthday, what you like to eat, and the names of your brothers and sisters. She can hold a conversation about music, movies and books. And of course, Harmony will have sex with you whenever you want.”
“President Donald Trump’s treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, is unconcerned about digital threats. He said, “In terms of artificial intelligence taking over American jobs, I think we’re so far away from that that it’s not even on my radar screen.… I think it’s 50 or 100 more years [away].”
Others disagree with that assessment. Tesla CEO and technology visionary Elon Musk predicts that “robots will be able to do everything better than us.” Not only will automation powered by artificial intelligence become ubiquitous, he noted, “it is the biggest risk that we face as a civilization.… There will certainly be a lot of job disruption.”
“The effectiveness of automated software has led some experts to predict large job losses in the financial services industry. Antony Jenkins, a former chief executive of Barclays, has stated that “the number of branches and people employed in the financial-services sector may decline by as much as 50 percent.”
“There are privacy concerns, however, with these new platforms. Critics note that virtual reality headsets collect a wealth of information, such as head movements, eye movements, facial expressions, and other kinds of data. This information can create a “heat map” of individual behavior and emotions while people are playing virtual reality games. These kinds of physiological data are very personal, and there must be constraints on how this information is used. Many believe that companies should not be free to share this material with third parties without the prior consent of the consumer.52 They worry that widespread sharing will invade the privacy of unknowing consumers.”
“IN 1954, THEN labor leader Walter Reuther was touring a Ford Motor factory in Cleveland. According to a report on the encounter, a company official pointed to automated machines and asked, “How are you going to collect union dues from these guys?” Reuther replied, “How are you going to get them to buy Fords?”
“The combination of large firms with small U.S.-based full-time workforces is typical of the twenty-first-century economy. Companies no longer need half a million employees to perform essential tasks. They can achieve high valuations and function perfectly well with a small workforce, an external supply chain, and a reliance on independent contractors or the outsourcing of work to other countries. When this scenario is repeated many times across numerous companies, we have entered a situation in which the number of U.S.-based full-time employees required by individual firms is quite small, and this is especially true of firms working in the digital economy.”
“An International Monetary Fund study found that “half the decline in workers’ share of income in the developed world can be attributed to advancing technology.”
“As the Cornell University engineer Hod Lipson points out, “For a long time the common understanding was that technology was destroying jobs but also creating new and better ones. Now the evidence is that technology is destroying jobs and indeed creating new and better ones but also fewer ones.”
“During the global recession of 2008–09, many businesses downsized their workforce for budgetary reasons. They had to find ways to maintain operations through leaner workforces. Business leader John Hazen White of Taco Comfort Solutions in Rhode Island had 500 workers for his $30 million business before the recession and now has 1,000 employees for a firm that has grown to $300 million in revenues. He did this by automating certain functions and boosting productivity in his factories.”
“The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) compiles future employment projections. In its 2015 analysis, the agency predicted that 9.8 million new positions would be created by 2024. This amounts to a labor force growth of about 0.5 percent per year. Figure 4-2 shows the distribution by sector for the period 2014 to 2024. The health care and social assistance sector is expected to grow the most, at a projected annual rate of 1.9 percent, or around 3.8 million total new jobs over the decade. That is about one-third of all the positions expected to be created.15 Other areas that are likely to experience growth include professional services (1.9 million), leisure and hospitality (941,000), construction (790,000), trade (765,000), state and local government (756,000), and finance (507,000).
Interestingly, in light of technological advances, the information sector is one of the areas expected to lose jobs. The BLS projects that about 27,000 jobs will be lost in the information sector over the coming decade”
“Former U.S. treasury secretary Lawrence Summers is equally pessimistic about the employment impact. In July 2014 he wrote, “If current trends continue, it could well be that a generation from now a quarter of middle-aged men will be out of work at any given moment.” From his standpoint, “providing enough work” will be the major economic challenge facing the world.27 Later he updated his prediction, saying, “We may have a third of men between the ages of 25 and 54 not working by the end of this half century [2050].” These numbers are double to triple the 12 percent of prime-age men who currently are not working.”
“The strategist Ruchir Sharma anticipates that not only will robots fail to destroy jobs, they will actually increase employment. Even though the global population is expected to reach 10 billion people by 2050, the number of working-age people will be insufficient to produce the goods and services that are needed. In this situation, robots will perform valuable tasks and do the work necessary to help aging populations.”
“Even business executives are sanguine about the job impact. When asked about their own hiring plans over the next five years in the context of increasing use of robotics, 58 percent of CEOs queried said they planned to reduce jobs, while only 16 percent said they would increase jobs”
“The workforce ramifications discussed here are not likely to be equally distributed across all demographic groups. Rather, the impact differs based on age, gender, income, education, and race.”
“According to the U.S. Department of Education, there will be a 14 percentage-point increase in STEM jobs between 2010 and 2020. However, “only 16 percent of American high school seniors are proficient in mathematics and interested in a STEM career.”
I have only drawn quotes from the first two-thirds of this, since the end is mostly concerned with US politics, and that is all too depressing for words.
“Andrew Puzder, former CEO of CKE Restaurants, the parent company of Hardee’s, praised digital devices over human workers. Referring to the former, he said, “They’re always polite, they always upsell, they never take a vacation, they never show up late, there’s never a slip-and-fall, or an age, sex or race discrimination case.”
“McDonald’s, meanwhile, has announced plans to install “digital ordering kiosks” in place of cashiers at 2,500 of its American restaurants and mobile ordering at 14,000 of its stores. Based on these technologies, market analysts in 2017 raised their 2018 growth projections for the firm from 2 percent to 3 percent. McDonald’s believes that digital tools cut costs, improve productivity, and reduce the chain’s reliance on human employees. The corporation’s officers predicted that the new technologies would lift the company’s stock price by 17.5 percent in 2018”
“Matt McMullen makes “Real Dolls” that retail for $5,000 and have audio, sensory, and physical movements built into them. At his Abyss Creations in San Marcos, California, he is working on “Harmony,” a silicone sex toy. According to the firm, “Harmony smiles, blinks and frowns. She can hold a conversation, tell jokes and quote Shakespeare. She will remember your birthday, what you like to eat, and the names of your brothers and sisters. She can hold a conversation about music, movies and books. And of course, Harmony will have sex with you whenever you want.”
“President Donald Trump’s treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, is unconcerned about digital threats. He said, “In terms of artificial intelligence taking over American jobs, I think we’re so far away from that that it’s not even on my radar screen.… I think it’s 50 or 100 more years [away].”
Others disagree with that assessment. Tesla CEO and technology visionary Elon Musk predicts that “robots will be able to do everything better than us.” Not only will automation powered by artificial intelligence become ubiquitous, he noted, “it is the biggest risk that we face as a civilization.… There will certainly be a lot of job disruption.”
“The effectiveness of automated software has led some experts to predict large job losses in the financial services industry. Antony Jenkins, a former chief executive of Barclays, has stated that “the number of branches and people employed in the financial-services sector may decline by as much as 50 percent.”
“There are privacy concerns, however, with these new platforms. Critics note that virtual reality headsets collect a wealth of information, such as head movements, eye movements, facial expressions, and other kinds of data. This information can create a “heat map” of individual behavior and emotions while people are playing virtual reality games. These kinds of physiological data are very personal, and there must be constraints on how this information is used. Many believe that companies should not be free to share this material with third parties without the prior consent of the consumer.52 They worry that widespread sharing will invade the privacy of unknowing consumers.”
“IN 1954, THEN labor leader Walter Reuther was touring a Ford Motor factory in Cleveland. According to a report on the encounter, a company official pointed to automated machines and asked, “How are you going to collect union dues from these guys?” Reuther replied, “How are you going to get them to buy Fords?”
“The combination of large firms with small U.S.-based full-time workforces is typical of the twenty-first-century economy. Companies no longer need half a million employees to perform essential tasks. They can achieve high valuations and function perfectly well with a small workforce, an external supply chain, and a reliance on independent contractors or the outsourcing of work to other countries. When this scenario is repeated many times across numerous companies, we have entered a situation in which the number of U.S.-based full-time employees required by individual firms is quite small, and this is especially true of firms working in the digital economy.”
“An International Monetary Fund study found that “half the decline in workers’ share of income in the developed world can be attributed to advancing technology.”
“As the Cornell University engineer Hod Lipson points out, “For a long time the common understanding was that technology was destroying jobs but also creating new and better ones. Now the evidence is that technology is destroying jobs and indeed creating new and better ones but also fewer ones.”
“During the global recession of 2008–09, many businesses downsized their workforce for budgetary reasons. They had to find ways to maintain operations through leaner workforces. Business leader John Hazen White of Taco Comfort Solutions in Rhode Island had 500 workers for his $30 million business before the recession and now has 1,000 employees for a firm that has grown to $300 million in revenues. He did this by automating certain functions and boosting productivity in his factories.”
“The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) compiles future employment projections. In its 2015 analysis, the agency predicted that 9.8 million new positions would be created by 2024. This amounts to a labor force growth of about 0.5 percent per year. Figure 4-2 shows the distribution by sector for the period 2014 to 2024. The health care and social assistance sector is expected to grow the most, at a projected annual rate of 1.9 percent, or around 3.8 million total new jobs over the decade. That is about one-third of all the positions expected to be created.15 Other areas that are likely to experience growth include professional services (1.9 million), leisure and hospitality (941,000), construction (790,000), trade (765,000), state and local government (756,000), and finance (507,000).
Interestingly, in light of technological advances, the information sector is one of the areas expected to lose jobs. The BLS projects that about 27,000 jobs will be lost in the information sector over the coming decade”
“Former U.S. treasury secretary Lawrence Summers is equally pessimistic about the employment impact. In July 2014 he wrote, “If current trends continue, it could well be that a generation from now a quarter of middle-aged men will be out of work at any given moment.” From his standpoint, “providing enough work” will be the major economic challenge facing the world.27 Later he updated his prediction, saying, “We may have a third of men between the ages of 25 and 54 not working by the end of this half century [2050].” These numbers are double to triple the 12 percent of prime-age men who currently are not working.”
“The strategist Ruchir Sharma anticipates that not only will robots fail to destroy jobs, they will actually increase employment. Even though the global population is expected to reach 10 billion people by 2050, the number of working-age people will be insufficient to produce the goods and services that are needed. In this situation, robots will perform valuable tasks and do the work necessary to help aging populations.”
“Even business executives are sanguine about the job impact. When asked about their own hiring plans over the next five years in the context of increasing use of robotics, 58 percent of CEOs queried said they planned to reduce jobs, while only 16 percent said they would increase jobs”
“The workforce ramifications discussed here are not likely to be equally distributed across all demographic groups. Rather, the impact differs based on age, gender, income, education, and race.”
“According to the U.S. Department of Education, there will be a 14 percentage-point increase in STEM jobs between 2010 and 2020. However, “only 16 percent of American high school seniors are proficient in mathematics and interested in a STEM career.”
December 7, 2018
This book is poorly written and borders on intellectually dishonest.
The explanation of AI, robotics, and automation is equivalent to what you can glean from skimming headlines. It is less than half of the book, and heavily padded with unrelated statistics. The author fails to identify how different types of jobs will be affected in any detail. While the author can't know the future, I expected some investigation.
The balance of the book is made up of the author's proposed solutions, which fall into two categories: the government providing income, and the government providing re-training.
The ideas around government providing income seem to fundamentally misunderstand what money is, and why it has value.
The government making money available for re-training people whose jobs were lost to technology is problematic because the author has failed to investigate which types of jobs are likely to be lost, which will remain, and how many there will be. Will there be anything to re-train people to do? Will many people have the aptitude for the jobs that remain?
Only the most meager pretense is made at showing how the proposed solutions would address the stated problems. Instead, the author presents them as the only possible solutions, then recommends everyone adjust their point of view to accept them. By the end of the book you are left with the feeling that the author started by picking his favorite policy positions, then found a way to back a popular topic into them.
The explanation of AI, robotics, and automation is equivalent to what you can glean from skimming headlines. It is less than half of the book, and heavily padded with unrelated statistics. The author fails to identify how different types of jobs will be affected in any detail. While the author can't know the future, I expected some investigation.
The balance of the book is made up of the author's proposed solutions, which fall into two categories: the government providing income, and the government providing re-training.
The ideas around government providing income seem to fundamentally misunderstand what money is, and why it has value.
The government making money available for re-training people whose jobs were lost to technology is problematic because the author has failed to investigate which types of jobs are likely to be lost, which will remain, and how many there will be. Will there be anything to re-train people to do? Will many people have the aptitude for the jobs that remain?
Only the most meager pretense is made at showing how the proposed solutions would address the stated problems. Instead, the author presents them as the only possible solutions, then recommends everyone adjust their point of view to accept them. By the end of the book you are left with the feeling that the author started by picking his favorite policy positions, then found a way to back a popular topic into them.
Read
October 19, 2018The links between the dominos being pointed out are all true:
- AI and automation will replace a lot work in the economy.
- When people lose job, they become social problems (unemployment, health, and drug abuse)
- There are ways to deal with the problem that we can see: universal minimum income, lifetime education, etc
- The current political climate does not make these sweeping changes likely — if possible at all.
- This is due to a small number of rich people holding enormous sway in people in office.
- If we have campaign finance reform then the problem becomes easier.
But the question is “now what”. If some of the 0.01-percenters are willing to spend billions of dollars a year to maintain their special interests, how do go about getting campaign finance reform?
I have yet to hear good ideas from anyone. It’s either “If only we have X, then we can have Y” when X is just as difficult to get; or we go fight every skirmish A1, knowing the opponent can easily move the issue to A2 or A3, ...
- AI and automation will replace a lot work in the economy.
- When people lose job, they become social problems (unemployment, health, and drug abuse)
- There are ways to deal with the problem that we can see: universal minimum income, lifetime education, etc
- The current political climate does not make these sweeping changes likely — if possible at all.
- This is due to a small number of rich people holding enormous sway in people in office.
- If we have campaign finance reform then the problem becomes easier.
But the question is “now what”. If some of the 0.01-percenters are willing to spend billions of dollars a year to maintain their special interests, how do go about getting campaign finance reform?
I have yet to hear good ideas from anyone. It’s either “If only we have X, then we can have Y” when X is just as difficult to get; or we go fight every skirmish A1, knowing the opponent can easily move the issue to A2 or A3, ...
July 18, 2022
The Artificial Intelligence and Internet of Things (AIoT) disrupt us at a higher phase than ever. Darrell West addresses the challenges of future job markets thanks to Robots, AI, and Automation with loads of statistics. He explains digital economy is unavoidable that comes with its own challenges - loss of jobs and the associated social problems.
Decade before, people working for delivery and ride-hailing were not a workforce - now they are a global workforce. Uber, Amazon, and Uber Eats, to name few. No doubt, IT disrupts all sectors, but in the meantime, it does open up new genre of jobs. It all depends on how a government wants to prepare itself and its workforce to face this IT revolutionized future job market.
The author fails to elaborate on many questions about future jobs - which types of jobs are likely to be lost, which jobs will remain and how many, what is the mechanism to retrain people, will many people be fit to work for jobs that remain, what would be the role of IT governance, how to get the political threats out of free markets etc. These are crucial questions that require elaborations before planning solutions.
Darrel reminds me of Yuval Harari who opines that our unmeasured heavy dependency on AI could lead us to “Digital Dictorship” in which human might be colonized by IT tools. In the machines-learn-fast era, our heavy AI dependency might pose challenges such as lack of human touch, inability of human to cope, machine-driven financial accidents, machine-driven suspicions on people etc.
In his limited suggestion to overcome future job losses and its related challenges, the author suggests to re-think the concept of jobs – jobs that need wages, and jobs that need volunteering. He suggests people should examine the portable benefits and lifelong learning to support economic change while governments should enact social and political reforms including IT governance to prevent unemployment crisis and social unrest.
The author spends relatively a small section to propose solutions to the challenges he highlighted. Crowded with statistics and references, it is fairly a quick read to draw insights on future job market and digital economy.
Decade before, people working for delivery and ride-hailing were not a workforce - now they are a global workforce. Uber, Amazon, and Uber Eats, to name few. No doubt, IT disrupts all sectors, but in the meantime, it does open up new genre of jobs. It all depends on how a government wants to prepare itself and its workforce to face this IT revolutionized future job market.
The author fails to elaborate on many questions about future jobs - which types of jobs are likely to be lost, which jobs will remain and how many, what is the mechanism to retrain people, will many people be fit to work for jobs that remain, what would be the role of IT governance, how to get the political threats out of free markets etc. These are crucial questions that require elaborations before planning solutions.
Darrel reminds me of Yuval Harari who opines that our unmeasured heavy dependency on AI could lead us to “Digital Dictorship” in which human might be colonized by IT tools. In the machines-learn-fast era, our heavy AI dependency might pose challenges such as lack of human touch, inability of human to cope, machine-driven financial accidents, machine-driven suspicions on people etc.
In his limited suggestion to overcome future job losses and its related challenges, the author suggests to re-think the concept of jobs – jobs that need wages, and jobs that need volunteering. He suggests people should examine the portable benefits and lifelong learning to support economic change while governments should enact social and political reforms including IT governance to prevent unemployment crisis and social unrest.
The author spends relatively a small section to propose solutions to the challenges he highlighted. Crowded with statistics and references, it is fairly a quick read to draw insights on future job market and digital economy.
July 14, 2018
A short read that lays out the obvious
There is not much in the book that is insightful. West covers the familiar territory if automation and the polarisation of american politics.
There is not much in the book that is insightful. West covers the familiar territory if automation and the polarisation of american politics.
March 22, 2024
"The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation" by Darrell M. West provides an insightful analysis of the ongoing economic revolution driven by automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and technological advancements. The book delves into various aspects of this transformation, ranging from the impact on the workforce to ethical concerns and potential societal changes. Here's a breakdown of the key points covered:
1. Automation and Job Displacement: The book explores how automation is already displacing workers across various industries, particularly in blue-collar jobs such as retail, transportation, and manufacturing. It discusses how businesses are increasingly adopting automated solutions to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
2. Artificial Intelligence: AI is identified as a significant component of the digital economy, with the capacity to replace human tasks across different sectors, including finance, defense, and healthcare. The book examines both the benefits and ethical concerns associated with AI adoption.
3. Internet of Things (IoT): The IoT is highlighted as a transformative force, enabling real-time monitoring and management of physical systems and objects. Examples include healthcare applications, infrastructure improvements, and smart city initiatives.
4. Redefining Jobs and Benefits: The book argues for a reevaluation of traditional notions of work and benefits in light of technological advancements. It suggests expanding the definition of valuable work to include volunteer activities and community contributions and advocates for portable benefits and lifelong education to adapt to the changing economic landscape.
5. Policy Recommendations: West proposes several policy reforms to address the challenges posed by automation and AI, including portable benefits, lifetime education, and political reforms aimed at reducing wealth inequality and strengthening democracy.
6. Political Inaction and Challenges: The book highlights the lack of political consensus and action on addressing the implications of automation and AI, emphasizing the need for bipartisan cooperation and meaningful reforms to mitigate the potential negative consequences.
Overall, "The Future of Work" provides a comprehensive examination of the ongoing economic transformation driven by automation and AI, offering valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike.
1. Automation and Job Displacement: The book explores how automation is already displacing workers across various industries, particularly in blue-collar jobs such as retail, transportation, and manufacturing. It discusses how businesses are increasingly adopting automated solutions to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
2. Artificial Intelligence: AI is identified as a significant component of the digital economy, with the capacity to replace human tasks across different sectors, including finance, defense, and healthcare. The book examines both the benefits and ethical concerns associated with AI adoption.
3. Internet of Things (IoT): The IoT is highlighted as a transformative force, enabling real-time monitoring and management of physical systems and objects. Examples include healthcare applications, infrastructure improvements, and smart city initiatives.
4. Redefining Jobs and Benefits: The book argues for a reevaluation of traditional notions of work and benefits in light of technological advancements. It suggests expanding the definition of valuable work to include volunteer activities and community contributions and advocates for portable benefits and lifelong education to adapt to the changing economic landscape.
5. Policy Recommendations: West proposes several policy reforms to address the challenges posed by automation and AI, including portable benefits, lifetime education, and political reforms aimed at reducing wealth inequality and strengthening democracy.
6. Political Inaction and Challenges: The book highlights the lack of political consensus and action on addressing the implications of automation and AI, emphasizing the need for bipartisan cooperation and meaningful reforms to mitigate the potential negative consequences.
Overall, "The Future of Work" provides a comprehensive examination of the ongoing economic transformation driven by automation and AI, offering valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike.
January 18, 2022
I agree that upcoming automation will change employment globally, and that governments need to start to address what this will mean for citizens.
I'd have liked this book to go into more depth about some possible scenarios or even what the future of work could be, but found this glazed over.
Most everything here is covered and in more depth in The Economic Singularity from 2016.
I'd have liked this book to go into more depth about some possible scenarios or even what the future of work could be, but found this glazed over.
Most everything here is covered and in more depth in The Economic Singularity from 2016.
July 17, 2021
I have recently been reading about ai, and this is one of several books in my collection.
I have seen that this book has gotten very mixed and polarized reviews. Some say it is all bad, some all good. I will give my honest perspective on the book. And explain in detail why it was both. And why I'm personally leaning to 2 stars. I don't have the time or energy to edit my writing down. But I'll write a TL;DR.
TL;DR: the book was inaccurate technologically and economically. Not a worthwhile read due to the lack of research and the undeveloped points and reasoning. However, it did provide an intriguing political and social perspective.
This book was about the coming problems AI has for the future, specifically the middle class. The primary lens the author provides is his knowledge and experience in political science. The author advocates primarily for communist views. I found this to be an interesting perspective that often gets unvoiced in American politics.
The disruption of economics by AI is a real threat, but the author does not explain it in-depth. At a certain point, it became clear that the author had not researched this topic in-depth. So what should be taken away from this book are the political and social perspectives, not the technological or business aspects.
I even found an error in one of the statistics the author uses. Mr. West inaccurately portrayed the industrial revolution as disrupting the economy. They used a statistic twice about there being a 10% drop in wages after the industrial revolution. However, upon closer inspection of the scientific paper the author cites, it is clear that the researcher did not make this point at all. The researcher clearly states that this recession was due to government policy (trade and taxes), not due to the industrial revolution. I do not blame Mr. West in this particular instance for using this data point, as two notable communist writers incorrectly cited this data as showing a disruption.
This point is attached to one of the main arguments or lines of reasoning throughout the book. All the connections with the industrial revolution the author made would prove to be unhelpful for his case.
I am sure there are other errors in this writing in this writing because the author likely did not consult an expert in his writing. Any professional economist would have looked at that particular statistic and corrected it, as they would have studied the industrial revolution in-depth. It set off the alarm bells for me, and I'm not even remotely interested in business.
The second major criticism I would give to this book is how undeveloped some of the solutions are. As someone else noted, all it generally said was tax the rich and retrain individuals. And then it rattled off some undeveloped points that tangibly relate to the topic at hand. For example, in the civil unrest point, one of its solutions was to abolish the electoral system. I agree that the electoral college is useless, but I'm not certain abolishing the electoral college is the solution. The issue is much more complicated than how the author makes it sound. Probably switching to a mandatory proportional voting system makes the most practical sense.
My last criticism about this book was it went off-topic. I have alluded to this previously, but towards the end, I was honestly unsure if I was reading about AI or communism. The solutions presented were not AI-specific solutions. To not have AI in the solution makes me think that the author had not thought in-depth about AI in particular, only about advancing his political beliefs. If that doesn't make sense to whoever is reading my rambling, imagine if you read a book about climate change and were listed out general solutions. Not any that even primarily had to do with emissions. It is just no longer on-topic at that point.
TL;DR: the book was inaccurate technologically and economically. Not a worthwhile read due to the lack of research and the undeveloped points and reasoning. However, it did provide an intriguing political and social perspective.
I have seen that this book has gotten very mixed and polarized reviews. Some say it is all bad, some all good. I will give my honest perspective on the book. And explain in detail why it was both. And why I'm personally leaning to 2 stars. I don't have the time or energy to edit my writing down. But I'll write a TL;DR.
TL;DR: the book was inaccurate technologically and economically. Not a worthwhile read due to the lack of research and the undeveloped points and reasoning. However, it did provide an intriguing political and social perspective.
This book was about the coming problems AI has for the future, specifically the middle class. The primary lens the author provides is his knowledge and experience in political science. The author advocates primarily for communist views. I found this to be an interesting perspective that often gets unvoiced in American politics.
The disruption of economics by AI is a real threat, but the author does not explain it in-depth. At a certain point, it became clear that the author had not researched this topic in-depth. So what should be taken away from this book are the political and social perspectives, not the technological or business aspects.
I even found an error in one of the statistics the author uses. Mr. West inaccurately portrayed the industrial revolution as disrupting the economy. They used a statistic twice about there being a 10% drop in wages after the industrial revolution. However, upon closer inspection of the scientific paper the author cites, it is clear that the researcher did not make this point at all. The researcher clearly states that this recession was due to government policy (trade and taxes), not due to the industrial revolution. I do not blame Mr. West in this particular instance for using this data point, as two notable communist writers incorrectly cited this data as showing a disruption.
This point is attached to one of the main arguments or lines of reasoning throughout the book. All the connections with the industrial revolution the author made would prove to be unhelpful for his case.
I am sure there are other errors in this writing in this writing because the author likely did not consult an expert in his writing. Any professional economist would have looked at that particular statistic and corrected it, as they would have studied the industrial revolution in-depth. It set off the alarm bells for me, and I'm not even remotely interested in business.
The second major criticism I would give to this book is how undeveloped some of the solutions are. As someone else noted, all it generally said was tax the rich and retrain individuals. And then it rattled off some undeveloped points that tangibly relate to the topic at hand. For example, in the civil unrest point, one of its solutions was to abolish the electoral system. I agree that the electoral college is useless, but I'm not certain abolishing the electoral college is the solution. The issue is much more complicated than how the author makes it sound. Probably switching to a mandatory proportional voting system makes the most practical sense.
My last criticism about this book was it went off-topic. I have alluded to this previously, but towards the end, I was honestly unsure if I was reading about AI or communism. The solutions presented were not AI-specific solutions. To not have AI in the solution makes me think that the author had not thought in-depth about AI in particular, only about advancing his political beliefs. If that doesn't make sense to whoever is reading my rambling, imagine if you read a book about climate change and were listed out general solutions. Not any that even primarily had to do with emissions. It is just no longer on-topic at that point.
TL;DR: the book was inaccurate technologically and economically. Not a worthwhile read due to the lack of research and the undeveloped points and reasoning. However, it did provide an intriguing political and social perspective.
October 21, 2018
♡♧Today's reading, The Future of Work by Darrell M. West on Blinkist was very insightful.
I could easily relate as an AI- Robotics enthusiast as my postgraduate works were along these lines.
Darrell takes a good look at the nature of Work and how it is currently evolving.
The Author looks into Artificial Intelligence, Automation, machine learning, internet of things- IoT and how they are currently affecting work, life and living.
In a nutshell, work processes are already being automated, many people will lose their jobs, more new roles or opportunities will be created in no doubt newer paths for instance healthcare will benefit immensely.
There will be no routine jobs with higher pay, because less robots can take on more of such jobs with minimal cost to organizations.
This will surely disrupt the job market
Though AI has lots of advantages, yet, It is not without its own challenges too.
Dreams, Imaginations or projections along these lines decades ago are already reality today.
People will learn new skills and do more jobs along their own talent or life purpose
Blinkist offers the best knowledge from nonfiction in powerful, memorable packs and I use it to read at least one book each day
I could easily relate as an AI- Robotics enthusiast as my postgraduate works were along these lines.
Darrell takes a good look at the nature of Work and how it is currently evolving.
The Author looks into Artificial Intelligence, Automation, machine learning, internet of things- IoT and how they are currently affecting work, life and living.
In a nutshell, work processes are already being automated, many people will lose their jobs, more new roles or opportunities will be created in no doubt newer paths for instance healthcare will benefit immensely.
There will be no routine jobs with higher pay, because less robots can take on more of such jobs with minimal cost to organizations.
This will surely disrupt the job market
Though AI has lots of advantages, yet, It is not without its own challenges too.
Dreams, Imaginations or projections along these lines decades ago are already reality today.
People will learn new skills and do more jobs along their own talent or life purpose
Blinkist offers the best knowledge from nonfiction in powerful, memorable packs and I use it to read at least one book each day
September 9, 2018
An excellent, well researched and well-written book on the future of work and the issues that will face us as a society as we navigate this next technical revolution.
If you are interested or concerned about how technology, robotics and AI are going to affect our jobs, life and society this is a great book to start with. Packed full of relevant stats and research, I raced through my copy in 2 days and it was full of tape flags by the end.
Highly recommended
If you are interested or concerned about how technology, robotics and AI are going to affect our jobs, life and society this is a great book to start with. Packed full of relevant stats and research, I raced through my copy in 2 days and it was full of tape flags by the end.
Highly recommended
October 12, 2018
This is a very well-researched study on how automation and robotics will shape the future of work and the social contracts that define today’s society. I read several other books on the subject including Martin Ford’s two excellent books; and this one has some very cogent insights on the political implications of technology that I had not seen mentioned in others. Highly recommended to everyone with an interest in what awaits us in the dawn of AI.
August 4, 2018
A truly disappointing compendium of half baked ideas from someone who clearly believes the government is the solution to all problems. Given the government’s track record, their likelihood of coming up with viable solutions is slim. This book presents nothing new and does a really bad job of defining the problems we will face. A true waste of time.
April 26, 2019
An interesting look at the coming jobs apocalypse due to automation, robots and AI, but also explores the political and economic policies that might help even things out. Very relevant for these divided political times.
January 11, 2019
It made some good points, but it sounded like it was advocating for socialism.
February 15, 2019
Great book
Gives insight and foresight of what lies ahead of us and how we should prepare for it. Academics should read this
Gives insight and foresight of what lies ahead of us and how we should prepare for it. Academics should read this
April 28, 2019
Very good book, however the solutions presented do not seems to be feasible.
November 28, 2020
Another "Me Too".... in the AI prophecies. Can't we have specific prophecy, than a very generic and shallow details like these
July 11, 2021
Mind blown, time to get ready for whatever coming
May 26, 2025
إن قراءتك لهذا الكتاب تُشبه النظر من نافذة تطل على مستقبلٍ يعاد تشكيله أمام عينيك! يأخذك داريِل وَست في رحلة فكرية عميقة، يشرح لك فيها كيف أن التكنولوجيا لا تُغيّر أدوات العمل فقط، بل تعيد تعريف مفاهيم العمل ذاتها. تشعر، وأنت تقرأ، أن العالم الذي تعرفه يذوب تدريجيًا في فضاءٍ رقميٍ سريع التحول. ورغم أن الكتاب لا يخلو من التحذيرات، إلا أنك تجد فيه بصيص أمل، خاصة في دعوته لإصلاح التعليم والسياسات لتصبح أكثر شمولًا وعدلًا.
أكثر ما يشدّك ربما هو نقاشه حول الطبقات الجديدة التي ستولد بفعل المهارات الرقمية، وكيف أن تجاهل هذا التحول قد يُعمّق الانقسامات المجتمعية. الكتاب غني، واقعي، ويستحق أن يُقرأ بتمعّن. لكنه في ذات الوقت، قد يجعلك تتساءل:
هل أنت — فعلًا — مستعدٌ لمستقبل العمل؟
تابعني على شبكات التواصل الاجتماعي
سليمان العوشن
http://about.me/aloshan
أكثر ما يشدّك ربما هو نقاشه حول الطبقات الجديدة التي ستولد بفعل المهارات الرقمية، وكيف أن تجاهل هذا التحول قد يُعمّق الانقسامات المجتمعية. الكتاب غني، واقعي، ويستحق أن يُقرأ بتمعّن. لكنه في ذات الوقت، قد يجعلك تتساءل:
هل أنت — فعلًا — مستعدٌ لمستقبل العمل؟
تابعني على شبكات التواصل الاجتماعي
سليمان العوشن
http://about.me/aloshan
August 13, 2018
A little too jargon-y for my taste (the terms weren't always well-defined). And despite West giving possible solutions, I felt a bit hopeless after reading this -- how do we get our politicians to understand these issues and cooperate to find solutions? Still, a good overview to help folks think through the things that are coming our way.
Reviewed for The Oklahoman.
Reviewed for The Oklahoman.
February 5, 2023
Any reader looking for insightful ideas on the future of work will be disappointed by this book. In particular, Darren West disappoints with an action plan (which tellingly gets the shortest chapter of the book) that dwells in nothing else than solidarity romanticism. Readers will search in vain in the book for innovative and promising strategies and policies that can oppose the erosion of worker prosperity and power in the era of new technologies. The one good thing of the book is a useful reference list.
blinkist
December 26, 2018The key message in these blinks:
There’s a new economy on the horizon: a digital economy, which is based on automated robots and artificial intelligence performing most of the tasks most day jobs comprise today. To prepare for this inevitability, we need to rethink how we define the jobs we deem worthy of wages and benefit.
There’s a new economy on the horizon: a digital economy, which is based on automated robots and artificial intelligence performing most of the tasks most day jobs comprise today. To prepare for this inevitability, we need to rethink how we define the jobs we deem worthy of wages and benefit.
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