How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for Our Times

by Pablo Servigne, Raphaël Stevens

What if our civilization were to collapse? Not many centuries into the future, but in our own lifetimes? Most people recognize that we face huge challenges today, from climate change and its potentially catastrophic consequences to a plethora of socio-political problems, but we find it hard to face up to the very real possibility that these crises could produce a collapse of our entire civilization. Yet we now have a great deal of evidence to suggest that we are up against growing systemic instabilities that pose a serious threat to the capacity of human populations to maintain themselves in a sustainable environment.

In this important book, Pablo Servigne and Raphael Stevens confront these issues head-on. They examine the scientific evidence and show how its findings, often presented in a detached and abstract way, are connected to people's ordinary experiences - joining the dots, as it were, between the Anthropocene and our everyday lives. In so doing they provide a valuable guide that will help everyone make sense of the new and potentially catastrophic situation in which we now find ourselves. Today, utopia has changed sides: it is the utopians who believe that everything can continue as before, while realists put their energy into making a transition and building local resilience. Collapse is the horizon of our generation. But collapse is not the end - it's the beginning of our future. We will reinvent new ways of living in the world and being attentive to ourselves, to other human beings and to all our fellow creatures.

Genres: Nonfiction, Science, Ecology, Climate Change, Politics, France, Environment

250 pages, Paperback

First published June 4, 2015

About the author

Pablo Servigne est un auteur et conférencier français. Il s'intéresse tout particulièrement aux questions de transition écologique, d'agroécologie, de collapsologie et de résilience collective.

Reviews

[Zaz · Rating 5 out of 5]

Une bonne synthèse des événements en cours (avant 2015) et à venir, dans un style agréable.

La lecture pourrait avoir été surprenante par son contenu, mais ne vivant pas avec des oeillères, cela fait pas loin d'une vingtaine d'années que je lis des articles par-ci, par-là, sur des choses sympathiques comme la fin des ressources fossiles, la pénurie d'eau, le changement climatique, les impacts de l'espèce humaine sur la nature, les pollutions diverses et variées, l'épuisement des sols agricoles, l'effondrement de la biodiversité, la déforestation, etc (la liste est longue !). La surprise est donc plutôt venue de la qualité du travail effectué, il est synthétique, accessible, illustré et arrive à mettre en lien de nombreuses données et études (sourcées). Si l'ensemble reste relativement récent (pré-2015), les données de 2018-2019 ne sont pas prises en compte (luttes sociales, désastres climatiques dans certains pays, fontes rapides des glaces polaires, extinction de masse pour de nombreuses espèces animales, etc), alors qu'elles ne viennent qu'étayer les modélisations des impacts destructeurs de la "croissance infinie".

Les novices en matières environnementale et sociologique pourront éventuellement ressentir un choc culturel déprimant (et alarmant), mais les autres y trouveront probablement une forme de soulagement. Savoir qu'il n'y a pas que les scientifiques qui se préoccupent du sujet et que la résilience éclairée est donc amorcée, ça a un côté optimiste assez plaisant. On regrettera un peu l'obstination des pouvoirs publics et d'une partie de la population à vouloir pérenniser à tout prix un système qui ne fonctionne pas, par crainte du changement, sachant que le changement risque d'être relativement violent sans préparation. On ne vit plus ni à l'époque de l'empire romain, ni à celle des conquêtes napoléoniennes, donc on peut en conclure que l'espèce humaine a quelques capacités d'adaptation et d'évolution qui ne passent pas vraiment par la fortune et la gloire.

Bref, une chouette lecture qui sera suivie prochainement par celle de Une autre fin du monde est possible, parce que j'ai bien envie d'en savoir un peu plus sur ce que les résilients mettent en place.

[Miguel Rodríguez · Rating 4 out of 5]

Colapsología es un libro relevante por el contenido que trata, que no es otro que el más que probable colapso que experimentará nuestra civilización en un futuro (demasiado) próximo. En él, Stevens y Servigne ofrecen datos de numerosos estudios que sirven como indicio de la trayectoria funesta en la que nos situamos. Muestran información sobre la crisis climática, la futura crisis energética debida al peak oil, la inestabilidad del mercado global y la poca resiliencia de las cadenas de producción internacionales, entre otros temas.

Al ser un libro relativamente corto (220 páginas) y el tema muy extenso y complejo, no llega a profundizar en ninguna componente que menciona, y cumple la función de hoja de ruta esquemática para quien se inicie en el tema. Analiza el estudio de Los límites del crecimiento, y es especialmente interesante el comentario que realiza acerca de cómo las decisiones económicas y tecnológicas del pasado bloquean la posibilidad de una transición. La crisis climática, desde mi punto de vista, requiere más atención, ya que a medio-largo plazo es el mayor condicionante de nuestra supervivencia, al igual que la dependencia del mundo en los combustibles fósiles (como por ejemplo la agricultura industrial, de la que tanto dependemos). A su vez, resulta preocupante cómo en solo 6 años (el texto original en francés se publicó en 2015) el contenido está desactualizado. La información actual sobre la crisis climática y de biodiversidad es mucho más dura y severa.

Resulta destacable cómo los autores escriben acerca de los sentimientos de duelo que se generan al interiorizar el colapso e intentan ofrecer puntos de vista que se alejen del catastrofismo paralizante.
Este libro lo debería leer cualquier persona que no sepa ya que nos precipitamos al abismo. Cualquier tecnopositivista que crea que la ciencia nos va a librar de la crisis climática o que encontraremos nuevas fuentes de energía (fusión, renovables eficientes) con las que continuar el crecimiento económico. El futuro es sobrio y austero, y el colapso terrorífico. Cuanta más gente lo comprenda, mayor será la mitigación.

P.D.: Si tienes conocimiento en este tema, el libro puede saber a poco, pero la enorme cantidad de referencias a estudios e iniciativas (junto con alguna perspectiva inusual) hace que merezca la pena.

[Murtaza · Rating 3 out of 5]

The world we live in is a gigantic complex system that it is fair to say no one really understands anymore. When systems are this large and this complex, they are also in equal parts powerful and vulnerable. We could be on the verge of collapse or that could be many generations away, its impossible to say with certainty although this book on "collapsology" suggests that we are simultaneously coming up against several resource boundaries that would cause the whole giant machine to come to a juddering, extremely painful halt. If you've read a few books about this kind of subject there probably won't be much new to you here, I personally found not much in this argument or the facts and figures laid out that was surprising. The book was published first in French in 2015 and translated this year, which, given the subject matter and data, already makes it a bit dated. Nonetheless if you need a reminder of what a dangerously artificial environment we all inhabit today this is as good as any.

[Kyle · Rating 4 out of 5]

I don't usually write reviews but I have to say that this was one of the most important books I've read in recent memory. Nowhere have I seen the many threats facing humanity outlined so succinctly and with plenty of references to the latest literature to back it up. The only one of these threats we hear about regularly in the media is climate change, and that on its own would be enough of a challenge for humanity to overcome. But there is also the upcoming energy crisis that is already happening due to the approaching depletion of the world's fossil fuel reserves (half of the world's oil-producing countries have passed "peak oil," including the United States). In one of the most sobering sections of the book, the authors breakdown how most alternative energy sources either cannot match the energy return on investment found in the fossil fuels upon which our industrialized civilization depends (solar, wind) or will have dangerous consequences on the environment if used exclusively (hydroelectric).

The authors also shed light on the fragility of our global economic and financial system, which we have seen recently with the Covid-19 crisis and to a much lesser extent the blockage of the Suez Canal. Furthermore, we have already crossed several boundaries spelling doom to the stability of the climate, our ecosystem, and the planet's major bio-geochemical cycles. The authors then conclude that collapse is inevitable. The working definition of collapse they use is not some Mad Max style post-apocalyptic situation, but rather "the process at the end of which basic needs (water, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc.) can no longer be provided [at a reasonable cost] to a majority of the population [of the planet] by services under legal supervision.’ Here are some more conclusions they draw:

"(1) the physical growth of our societies will come to a halt in the near future; (2) we have irreversibly damaged the entire Earth system (at least on the geological scale of human beings); (3) we are moving towards a very unstable, ‘non-linear’ future, where major disruptions (internal and external) will be the norm; and (4) we are now potentially subject to global systemic collapses."

Now, you might be thinking "Great, more doom and gloom predictions, just what I needed after a year of Covid Lockdown." Well the last third of the book is perhaps the most fascinating and certainly hopeful part of the book. The authors cast collapse as an opportunity for each of us to start building the world we want to see. Of course we need to mourn and come to terms with the fact that this two hundred year illusion of limitless growth is coming to an end and that unstable times are coming, but then we must take the necessary actions to set ourselves up for the best collapse possible. The authors push for the creation of local, resilient communities that to the best of their abilities can reduce their dependencies on the global fossil-fuel supply chains by developing skills and support networks that will be able to withstand collapse.

This final message left me feeling very hopeful and motivated to do whatever I can to participate in and help build such a community as well as to be useful and caring to others in the days ahead. In this regard, this book about worldwide economic, environmental, and political collapse was ironically one of the most inspiring things I have ever read.

[Lamotte Arthur · Rating 5 out of 5]

Probably the leading book in French about collapsology. A great synthesis of the challenges ahead of the thermo-industrial civilisation, mostly centred around the oil peak and its relations with climate change, economy, the biosphere, etc...
The book is very informative and compiling a great amount of scientific data (Pablo Servigne is a well recognised researcher and owns a PhD in Biology), making it very accessible to the newcomer, and offering a large bibliography of the main recent reports since the Club de Rome report of 1972 ("The Limits to Growth").
But the main challenge of this book is that it puts us in front of a harsh truth, leaving us no doubt on the forthcoming crisis, and insists on the psychological aspects such as the human propensity to denial, or the eschatological mythologies of apocalypse, the frenzy of survivalism...
It is the kind of book from which one does not come out unscathed.

[Jerome Cosnier · Rating 4 out of 5]

On ne sort pas vraiment indemne de la lecture de ce livre.
À plusieurs reprises, l'auteur nous prévient que nous risquons de traverser les différentes étapes du deuil durant ou après la lecture... J'en suis à la phase dépressive.
Même si la plupart des informations contenues dans cet ouvrage ne m'étaient pas inconnues auparavant, les voir ainsi rassemblées, listées, analysées et, finalement, amenées à leur conclusion logique, a quelque chose d'effrayant.
Une très grosse piqûre de réveil, ou un bon coup de pied aux fesses, au choix.
Il ne me reste qu'à me préparer à ce qui nous attend, en essayant de garder le sourire.

[Sylvain Bérubé · Rating 5 out of 5]

Mario Jodoin a commenté le livre sur son blogue. Comme il dit, il s'agit d’une lecture essentielle.

«Tout le monde a su que le GIEC avait publié un nouveau rapport sur l’évolution du climat en 2014, mais a-t-on vu un réel débat sur ces nouveaux scénarios climatiques et sur leur implication en termes de changement social? Non, bien sûr. Trop catastrophiste.»

[SomiadorElegit · Rating 5 out of 5]

Algo así como "Colapso para Dummies" es un ensayo no muy largo (212 páginas) en el que los autores Pablo Servigne y Raphaël Stevens resumen un poco el state of art de la incipiente "colapsología".
El libro consigue en mi opinión, de manera resumida pero bastante completa, acercarse a todos los temas importantes pertinentes relacionados con la crisis del sistema industrial al que pertenecemos. El libro está lleno de referencias con una bibliografía abultadísima que invita a tirar del hilo y seguir leyendo.
Muy recomendable porque como digo, consigue creo que muy bien resumir en sus doscientas páginas las causas del colapso que viene, desmiente las falsas esperanzas e intenta invitar a aproximarse al futuro de una manera distinta. Después de esta lectura me gustaría leer el aún no traducido al castellano "Une autre fin du monde est possible", de los mismos autores, donde hablan de una manera más práctica de las maneras de acercarse de manera inteligente a ese colapso.

[Cem Yüksel · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dünyayı çöküşe götürecek dinamikleri bilgi ve rakamlara dayalı bir şekilde gözden geçiren bir kitap. Öncelikle huzursuz edici. Zaten amacı da bu. Tüketimin , kaynak kullanımının bizi getireceği noktalara, nüfusun çöküş senaryolarına, finansal çöküş dinamiklerine bakarken, geçmişteki değerler, raporlar ve bugün üzerinden dönülmez noktada olup olmadığımızı tartışıyor. Çözüm yolları konusunda , toplumun kabul edeceği , uygulayacağı çok ağırlıklı yöntemler önerme konusunda çok etkin değil. Zaten tartıştığı konu da , şu andaki kurulu sistemin bu inkar, kabul etmeme ve hep daha fazlaya yönelmesi ile duvara toslamak üzere hızla yol aldığı. Referans ve kaynak kullanımı iyi bir kitap. Aktif ve rakamlar ile donanmış bir farkındalık için okumalık.

[Stephen · Rating 3 out of 5]

If a civilisational collapse were to come about, how would it begin? How would it progress? And what would the eventual outcome be? These are the issues covered by this book. It's a fairly large topic, which has taken on a degree of urgency by the concern surrounding climate change. If we accept that as our baseline, ought we to be concerned?

The basic argument is that society has become incredibly complex. The authors view civilisation and it's components - society, economy, politics, and so on - as one vast amalgam of overlapping systems that lie on top of each other. This is not a bad starting point. Their basic contention is that 'collapse' comes about not through a single aspects of the various systems failing to perform, but through an aggregation of things that aren't working just right. I have a great deal of sympathy with that view.

So, if we are to suffer a 'death of a thousand cuts', what evidence ought we to look for that it might be happening? What do we need to look at to see the speed at which it is progressing? There is much evidence in the world today that could be used to fit this scenario. The queues for petrol, the empty supermarket shelves, the shortage of lorry drivers, or doctors, or even shop assistants. It's a feeling that things once worked well, and now they are not. That is the sense of collapse.

But are our senses deceiving us? Are we simply remembering a golden past that never was? It is tempting to write this off as nostalgia, but our nostalgia for a more familiar and certain time does have some roots in our experience. We may be a long way from civilisational collapse, but it certainly feels as if we are on that trajectory. Politicians are exhorted to 'get a grip' on events, but with complex and adaptive systems, putting right one thing may not put right the whole system. Perhaps we need to wait for change to stabilise and materialise before we can place our stamp upon it?

This is all good stuff. It is covered within the book, but the book is a poor read. It is written in an overly academic style, so every sentence or two we are stopping for a reference or a justification, or an appeal to authority. I find this style of writing to be boring. And that sums up how I feel about the book. It is about an immensely important and interesting subject, but, as a reader, I was put off by the most turgid of writing styles that I have come across in a long time. Caveat emptor, as they say.

[Berktuğ · Rating 3 out of 5]

21.Yüzyıl kitaplığı serisi başladıktan çok kısa bir süre sonra hızlıca favorilerimden biri olmuştu. İlk eserlerde "vasat" veya "hiç uygun değil" tanımlarına ait kitaplar olsa da bu eserle beraber güncel olarak her yeni üyenin kendine has ağırlığı ve müthiş içerikleriyle geldiğinden emin oldum. Her ne kadar kitap beni genel açıdan baktığımda mutlu etse de bu kıymetli eserde göz ardı edemeyeceğimiz bir negatiflik var;

Yazım tarihi.

Kitap 2015'te yazılmasına rağmen Türkçe çeviriye ve değerli 21.yy kitaplığı serisine ancak 2024'te ulaşabiliyor. Bunun sorun olmadığı son derece lezzetli bölümler zaten kitabın yıldızlı yerleri olsa da bütün kitabı aynı seviyede ciddiye alabilmek sırf bu sebepten ötürü mümkün değil. Koronavirüs gibi tema ile direkt alakalı kocaman bir olay "daha olmamış" gibi davranmak zorundasınız. Yapay zeka ve ona bağlı artan verimlilik senaryosu söz konusu bile değil. Petrol sektörüne rönesans yaşatan "fracking" teknolojisi ve ABD'nin en büyük tüketiciden en büyük üretici konumuna geçmesi gibi bir ilginç gerçek yokmuş gibi fracking'in "peak oil gerçeğinin çok yakın oluşuna" karşı yeterli olmadığını okuyorsunuz :D Bütün bu durum elbette zamansallığa yenilmenin ta kendisi, ancak benim son düşüncem bunları göz ardı ederek okuduğunuz takdirde oldukça kıymetli "bilgiler" içeren bir eser olması. Nitekim bu duruma dair yazarlar tarafından 2021 Mart ayında eklenmiş 10 sayfalık bir sonsöz var kitabın sonunda. Onlar da kitabın güncelliği koruyup korumadığı sorusuna "çöküşbilim iki yapıdan oluşur, biri geçmişteki bilgiler ve diğeri geleceğe dair beklentiler" diye cevap vererek kitabın görevinin artık iki numaradan ilkine dönüştüğünü belirtmişler. Şimdi ise bu çerçevedeki pozitif yanlarını anlatacağım.


Kitap meramı konusunda herhangi bir spekülasyona yol vermeden uygarlığın neden çökeceğini ve ne zaman çökebileceğini sorguluyor. Burada karmaşık sistemler ve "karmaşıklık" tanımının bilimsel alanıyla ilgilenenlerin çok ilgisini çekeceğini düşündüğüm kısımlar var. Uygarlığımızın sisteminin üzerine oluşturulmuş "HANDY" ve "World3" gibi matematiksel modeller yüzeysel biçimde anlatılsa da referansları sayesinde konuya ordan başlayarak müthiş bir tavşan deliğine atlayabilirsiniz. Aynı zamanda çöküşe ve ona dair yazılan birçok geçmiş anekdot kan donduran cinsten gerçekçi 2025 yılının içinden bakarak okuduğunuzda.

"termo-endüstriyel uygarlığımızın genel çöküşünün 21.yüzyılın ilk yarısında gerçekleşmesi çok muhtemeldir."

Gezegene dair her sorunu herhangi bir bulandırma yapmadan ortaya koyması benim kalbimi fetheden etkenlerden biriydi. Kitap aynı serideki bir başka eser "Petrokıyamet" (O kitap hakkındaki incelememi ve kitabı neden sorunlu bulduğumu buradan okuyabilirsiniz : https://www.goodreads.com/review/show... ) gibi nüfustan söz etmekten kaçınmıyor. Aynı zamanda "2040'ta 7.5 milyar nüfusa sahip olsak çöküşü birkaç yıl geciktirebiliriz" gibi bir cümle geçtiği için kahkaha attığım bir kısım bile var :D Çöküş konusundaki sebepleri ve gelecek projeksiyonunu da çok iyi derlediği için 2015 te yazılmasına rağmen günümüzde yaşanan bazı "anormal gibi" görünen olayların ne kadar geliyor gelmekte olan bir biçimde yaşandığını da fark edebiliyorsunuz. Netlik, özellikle ortada kocaman sorunlar varsa asla kaçınılmaması gereken bir zorunluluktur. Kitap bu zorluğu aşmayı başarıyor.


Sonuç olarak, "Çöküşbilim Elkitabı" beklentilerinizi doğru belirlediğiniz ve dikkate değer kısımlarını gözden kaçırmadığınız sürece oldukça faydalı bir eser. Ortada kalan ise sonucu belirsiz ama aralığı tahmin edilebilir olan bir "her şey ne zaman çökecek?" sorusu. Belirsizliğe karşı önlem almak pek mümkün değildir, ancak "kesinlikle olacak" bir şeye karşı erişebildiğiniz bütün senaryoları ve sebepleri bilmek oldukça değerlidir. Zaten o büyüklükte bir an geldiğinde avantajlar muhtemelen buna çoktan hazır ve yeterli bilgiye sahip olanlarda olacaktır kuşkusuz. Bu değerli eser ise korkutucu bir 0 rakamına karşı sonsuz değerli bir başlangıç noktası olabilir. Her şeyi basite indirgemek isterseniz zaten ya doğa nüfusu ya da nüfus doğayı yer. Tarih boyunca bu sürekli tekerrür eder. Bana göre ise her daim ikili ihtimallerin dışında kalabilenlerdir yaşananları bittikten sonra yazma şansına erişebilenler.

"E peki? Sezgileriniz size ne söylüyor? 2020? 2030? 2100?"

[Klara Gonciarz · Rating 4 out of 5]

very well written, somewhat distressing but nonetheless relevant and eye opening

[Alejandro · Rating 1 out of 5]

Note : Je précise que je n'ai lu que la première moitié du livre. Puis j'ai abandonné car je le trouvais très peu scientifique. Il se peut que dans la deuxième moitié il explique tout ce qu'il n'a pas expliqué jusqu'ici, mais je m'en doute. Au moins les premières 100 pages ne démontrent rien et ça, pour moi, c'est suffisant pour arrêter la lecture.

Le livre se vend comme un livre scientifique. Pablo Servigne, « docteur en biologie ». Il a peut-être le diplôme, mais la science, c'est une méthode et non pas un bout de papier. Et on ne retrouve pas de science dans les pages de Servigne.

J'ai l'impression que l'écriture de l'auteur ne cherche qu'à convaincre ceux qui sont déjà convaincus. C'est peut-être pourquoi il y a autant de commentaires positifs ici. Il n'est pas rigoureux et fait trop d'affirmations très importantes sans justifier comment il en est arrivé là. Il utilise trop la formule « une étude récente nous indique que... », mais n'explique pas comment l'étude est arrivée à la conclusion dont il parle ; aucune autre information en est donnée. Une référence dans une phrase, de dire que ses conclusions viennent d'une étude scientifique, et c'est assez, pour lui, pour considérer que cette conclusion est une vérité évidente. Pablo Servigne veut qu'on lui croie parce qu'il le dit. Si on n'est pas d'accord, on peut aller chercher les études dont il parle et les lire en entier car il ne leur accorde que trois mots dans une phrase (ou même juste une petite référence à l'étude à côté d'un chiffre) et après s'attend à qu'on lui croie que l'étude est rigoureux, et en tire des conclusions très importantes. Par exemple, à la page 49, il écrit ceci :

« En fait, il est inimaginable de remplacer le pétrole par les autres combustibles que nous connaissons bien. D'une part parce que ni le gaz naturel, ni le charbon, ni le bois, ni l'uranium ne possèdent les qualités exceptionnelles du pétrole, facilement transportable et très dense en énergie. D'autre part, parce que ces énergies s'épuiseraient en un rien de temp, à la fois parce que la date de leur pique s'approche [55], et surtout parce que la plupart des machines et des infrastructures nécessaires fonctionnent au pétrole. »

Si vous trouvez cela intéressant, vous êtes comme moi. C'est très intéressant comme proposition ! Je m'attendais à qu'il allait parler de l'évidence pour ce qu'il venait de dire. J'ai lu ça et je me suis dit « wow, ça va être puissante la suite ». Et ben non. Il n'en parle plus si ce n'est pour assumer que c'est vrai. Aucune rigueur scientifique. À partir du moment qu'il met un petit chiffre (une note avec une référence à une étude [55]), cela devient un axiome. Ça vous intéresse de voir si Pablo a tort ? Très bien ! Vous avez donc une liste de 429 études scientifiques référencées (mais non pas discutées) que vous pouvez consulter dans votre temps libre.

Ceci n'est pas du tout un livre de vulgarisation. Si vous croyez déjà que la civilisation va s'effondrer, et que vous voulez quelqu'un qui vous disse que vous avez raison sans vous le prouver, celui-ci est votre livre. Si vous cherchez à apprendre, alors ne vous faite pas arnaquer.

Si vous avez lu le livre et que vous n'êtes pas d'accord avec moi, laissez-moi en commentaire svp.

[Leanne · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book came out in French in 2015. It is too bad it took five years to have it translated into English since my only real complaint iOS the data is dated. That said, it is a very interesting discussion on how societal and civilizational collapses occur. The discussion of energy was particularly interesting. As the authors say, there is no civilization without energy. But you can graph the way that there is a point where energy fueled economic growth peaks and then decline is impossible to avoid. I was also really interested in their chapters on inequality (NASA also saw that as a determining factor of collapse) and the way that we have come to find ourselves in a world with “one point failure” systems… these are not literally only one point but the systems are so complex but require few crucial parts to function, such that these global spanning networks are less resistant to failure than locally concentrated systems. Small, set-reliant systems and infrastructure will become more and more necessary as what used to be called “black swan” events grow more common.

It is not just a matter of switching from fossil fuels to nuclear and renewables— we must do all of that, plus totally change our over utilization of energy and over consumption since it wouldn’t be enough to save us otherwise. I appreciated this point in particular since I myself have gone from a belief in drastic lifestyle change and then to a sad realization that techno fixes like fission are required. I only realized this was necessary when I moved to the US from Japan and saw the total disregard people have for the environment in the US. Compared to 30 years ago when I left for example, everything is so MUCH more impactful. So, I lost faith that new more communally minded paradigms were possible. I appreciated this book since I realized that we need to do both. That is explore fission, fusion and so-called renewables at the same time we need to live in small, self-reliant and more communal eco-villages and towns. I also really appreciated their bringing in the role of art. Must-read book.

You can read new forward here
https://jembendell.com/2020/03/28/how...

Book Forum Review by Sophie Pinkham here
https://www.bookforum.com/print/2703/...

[Natasha Hurley-Walker · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent compilation of the state of collapsology in 2015, noting that we have pursued business as usual in the face of all evidence that we should not, and that we will likely continue to do so, which will inevitably bring about the downfall of thermo-industrial civilisation. It's 2020, and BAU was a completely correct prediction.

One thing I found very interesting was their note that an exogenous shock like a widespread pandemic might tip us into a collapsing state. Writing this from the midst of a pandemic, but seeing that the world has not turned into a huge food riot, I might be tempted to think the authors got it wrong. But collapse isn't necessarily a fast and apocalyptic process. It's knowing that your kids won't have the same opportunities you did, and their kids even less so. It's understanding that the things that you took for granted would always be there and always improve (e.g. international travel) were not a normal state of affairs, but a once-in-a-civilisation decadent excess. The phrase "the new normal" is starting to be used in mainstream discourse, and I think it's finally sinking in for many that 2020 isn't just a one-off bad year. It marks the start of the visible catabolic collapse of our entire way of life. Institutional inertia will take us a long way yet, but as the authors point out, that just means we have a bigger fall coming our way.

What hope do I hold? That we can build resilient local food and mutual aid networks, get on with the transition to renewables, and understand that degrowth is our only option. Do I think that will actually happen? No, I think we will persist with BAU in the face of the pandemic, and will experience catabolic collapse over decades, with politicians loudly insisting that the latest economic forecast is rosy, and everything will be fine if we can just keep our heads down and squeeze out a bit more productivity. And eventually, the centre will not hold, and we will fall back on local food and mutual aid networks, and whatever renewable resources we have managed to put in place in time.

[Andrea Sacchi · Rating 4 out of 5]

Sentimenti contrastanti.
Il libro è sicuramente ben scritto e la tematica che tratta interessante e attuale.
Tuttavia... Alcune informazioni, presentate come fattuali, ho riconosciuto essere trattate troppo grossolanamente (faccio riferimento ad alcune affermazioni sul nucleare), il che mi fa guardare con un po' di sospetto anche ad altre che non posso personalmente confermare o sfatare.
L'unica altra critica che mi sento di muovere è poi sul finale: l'"ottimismo" che sembra permeare l'ultima parte del libro, in cui vengono descritte comunità agresti resilienti e autonome, le esortazioni a non lasciarsi andare al nichilismo e al pessimismo passivo, l'apertura verso una decrescita felice (che viene nelle parti introduttive presentata come irrealizzabile per altro), mal si accorda nella mia opinione con il fatto (sempre presentato nel libro stesso) che in gran parte d'Europa la terra non soddisferà che il 50% della richiesta di cibo, condannando così metà della popolazione.
Fuori da queste due opinioni del tutto personali, il libro resta un ottimo strumento per pensare al futuro in maniera un po' più lucida di quanto si stia facendo al momento.

[Missives Divines · Rating 5 out of 5]

Un indispensable pour enfin sortir la tête du sable.

[John · Rating 5 out of 5]

Less a wake-up call than a synthesis of extant, wide-ranging research into the broad state of our world, including its physical, social, economic, political, and psychological aspects, this book is a great, if brief, introduction to the subject of "collapsology," which attempts, on the one hand, to describe the decline of our current way of life and, on the other, to imagine the possible worlds which may replace it. First published in French in 2015, and translated into English in 2020, this volume, despite being slight at times, is, nonetheless, an excellent primer for those of us whose intuition has been telling us that change is in the air. This book is a welcome reality-check for anyone whose expressions of concern over the fate of our global systems have been met with accusations of doomsaying or catastrophism. The authors lay out their case methodically, painting a picture of a world in which limitations have been encountered, boundaries have been crossed, and poor choices have locked the human race into systems which cannot be sustained. Whether discussing global warming, ecological degradation, limitations dictated by peak production of resources, conspicuous consumption, or debt-driven economic growth, the authors, without hysteria or hyperbole, effectively describe a complex network of equally complex interrelated systems which are prone to collective collapse at virtually any time between now and the end of the century given any number of potential perturbations.

These authors are not interested in futurology: they never attempt to fix a date, predict a specific precipitating event, or forecast any definite outcomes. What they do, however, is to offer an approximate span of time, a range of probable catastrophic failures, and a variety of possible outcomes. Ironically, this has the effect of leaving the reader with room for hope. To be sure, this is not the hope that things will "return to normal," as our actions during the past two centuries have largely degraded the resiliency of the systems upon which we rely to recover from crises. (For example, the idea of a transition to renewable energy sources in order to side-step an energy crisis is wishful thinking, since the only way to get from here to there would be the expenditure of more fossil fuels than we have left to expend.) What this book does do, however, is offer some degree of assurance that even if our current systems are doomed to collapse, the human race is not necessarily doomed to extinction. This is the difference between catastrophe and apocalypse: the former admits of recovery, in the form of new, if very different, systems, while the latter denies such possibilities.

The most likely scenario for the survival of the human race lies in the establishment of resilient communities which are small enough to be sustainable, but just large enough to engage in a mutual aid-based social model. This book encourages those who are earnestly concerned about the future of the planet to nurture hope in both themselves and, when possible, in others, and to begin the transition to a new mode of life now, instead of waiting until we have proof of catastrophe, at which point it may be too late to adapt. And if the authors may, at points, have underestimated the resiliency of our current milieu (their suggestion that a global pandemic might push the current systems irreversibly out of equilibrium, is, as the case has proven, overstated), they have probably not done so by much, and, at any rate, it hardly hurts their case considering that no one could rationally defend the idea that our current systems are sustainable in the long term. This book is an excellent jumping-off point for motivating individual action -- not action aimed at preserving or extending the status quo, but action aimed at creating a new way of life which avoids the mistakes of our past and our present and does not rely on action by those in power.

[Elisala · Rating 2 out of 5]

Après avoir lu Contre la résilience: à Fukushima et ailleurs, qui critique sévèrement la collapsologie, j'abordai ce livre avec plus de réserve que prévu initialement (il m'a été conseillé par une amie dont je partage beaucoup d'opinions, j'étais donc confiante. Initialement...).
Au final, ça m'a permis, je pense, d'aborder ce livre avec un double a-priori qui s'annule plus ou moins.

A-priori ou pas, j'ai trouvé ce livre peu convaincant, catastrophiste façon média moderne, et je n'ai pas aimé l'écriture non plus.
C'est censé nous ouvrir les yeux? Je ne sais pas s'il y a vraiment besoin de ce livre pour cela, c'est-à-dire quelqu'un qui s'intéresse un peu au sujet n'aura pas besoin d'être convaincu et n'apprendra pas grand chose, et quelqu'un qui ne s'y intéresse pas ne voudra sans doute pas trop s'impliquer dans, ni croire ce qui est écrit, étant donné le catastrophisme un peu trop grandiloquent à mon sens.
Et puis il me semble avoir vu à deux ou trois reprises des raisonnements pas très corrects ou peu étayés, et ça ça me hérisse le poil. Ça ne peut que desservir le propos, c'est nul.

[Ingrid · Rating 2 out of 5]

Plutôt déçue de ce livre que j'avais laissé longtemps dans ma PAL, craignant de lire les constats alarmants sur l'effondrement prochain.
Finalement, j'ai trouvé que ce livre n'était pas assez détaillé et étoffé pour être perçu comme rigoureux scientifiquement : certes, il y a des centaines de notes à la fin du livre, mais pour autant elles sont "jetées" par-ci par-là dans le texte, sans être détaillées, ce qui donne l'impression que le livre affirme des choses sans expliciter la source de ces affirmations et raisonnements.
A trop vouloir vulgariser le contenu pour le rendre facilement accessible, le livre donne l'impression de ne pas être sérieux dans ses démonstrations.

[Safa Furkan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Kollapsoloji bağlamında iklim değişikliği ile ilgili keyifli bir kitap. Kaynakçaların her bölümün sonunda verilmesi konunun derinliğine inmek için bire bir.

[Poiq Wuy · Rating 5 out of 5]

El libro es tremendamente completo para su brevedad. Aborda una multitud de temas relacionados e inextricables (biología, ecología, política, economía, sociedad, industria, transporte, psicología), y lo hace ofreciendo gran cantidad de referencias y datos. Lectura obligada para cualquier habitante de la civilización moderna. Al tiempo, no es técnico ni entra en detalles si no es para ilustrar mejor los ejemplos; es una obra dirigida a gente no especialista. Pero, ¿qué especialista puede serlo en tantos temas a la vez? Mientras la que proponen (de manera conscientemente provocadora y algo guasona) como «ciencia del colapso» no sea una disciplina mejor estructurada y extendida, poca gente puede escribir un libro como este.

Comienzan citando a [[Yves Cochet]] para definir [[colapso]] como

> el proceso a partir del cual una mayoría de la población ya no cuenta con las necesidades básicas (agua, alimentación, alojamiento, vestimenta, energía, etc.) cubiertas [por un precio razonable] por los servicios previstos por la ley.
> p.12 (corchetes suyos).

Encomian la idea de colapso porque permite combinar y conectar distintos niveles: desde pérdidas de biodiversidad a hambrunas hasta las emociones causadas por catástrofes: es el hilo que necesitan para hilvanar todas las disciplinas que son necesarias para entender mejor nuestro futuro.

# El vehículo

La primera parte del libro la vertebra una alegoría muy oportuna: la civilización moderna como un vehículo, que arrancó con la revolución industrial y alcanzó especial velocidad al terminar la segunda guerra mundial.

Un error típico es considerar los problemas por separado, lo que lleva a que se ofrezcan soluciones parciales (normalmente tecnológicas), que mejoran un sector mientras empeoran los problemas en otros (p.101).

## El muro

El primer problema al que se enfrenta es que delante de él, en la carretera, hay un muro: la crisis energética. Es el fin de la energía barata, en forma de combustibles fósiles, así como de la provisión fácil de extraer de muchos minerales y otros elementos necesarios para la tecnología actual. Los picos de extracción ya han quedado atrás para casi todos.

La [[tasa de retorno energético]] mínima en las fuentes de energía necesaria para cubrir todos los servicios que hoy se ofrecen a la población es de alrededor de 12:1. Si la tasa de retorno cae por debajo de 10:1, los precios aumentan exponencialmente. A p.XX el petroleo estadounidense estaba en cerca de 100:1, hoy en día en 11:1. De las energías renovables, solo la hidroeléctrica supera el umbral de 12:1.

La conclusión: es muy probable que, por debajo de un cierto umbral en la TRE, los precios se disparen y el coste de la energía de dispare bruscamente. No hay un descenso suave al otro lado del pico de extracción, sino un muro. Todo esto está también imbricado con el sistema financiero basado en la deuda.

## Salir de la carretera

La sobreexplotación de las fronteras ecológicas de la sostenibilidad. Comentan como las grandes crisis económicas siempre han estado relacionadas con cuestiones ecológicas y climáticas (p.53-4). Hoy en día ya hemos superado varios de estos límites. Son límites rebasables pero que pueden llevar a cruzar puntos de no retorno.

## Dirección bloqueada

Nos encontramos colectivamente dentro de un sistema con unas rutinas que no son las que son por ser las mejores (según cualquier criterio de bondad) o las más eficientes, sino que en muchos casos son costumbres fósiles debidas a causas pasadas hoy irrelevantes (o incluso contraproducentes) que simplemente siguen ahí por ser difíciles de cambiar. Lo ilustran profusamente.

## Estructura cada vez más frágil

El ensamblaje social que habitamos es cada vez más complejo e interconectado. Tres grandes tipos de riesgos amenazan su estabilidad:

- *Efectos de umbrales* (tipo todo o nada).
- *Efectos dominó*
- *Efectos de histéresis* (incapacidad de recuperar el equilibrio tras un choque)

Esto ocurre tanto en los sistemas naturales como en los específicamente humanos. Tratan el sistema financiero, las cadenas de abastecimiento, las infraestructuras. Dan muy buenos ejemplos de esto último (p.89<), especialmente la huelga de camiones en Gran Bretaña en el año 2000, que en menos de una semana llevó a que se cerraran muchos colegios, aplazar operaciones médicas no esenciales, o racionamiento en supermercados.

Las redes interconectadas pueden tener grados muy distintos de resiliencia a las perturbaciones. En general (p.115-6):

- Las redes *ultraconectadas y homogéneas* presentan más resistencia al cambio y capacidad de reparación local, también presentan transiciones críticas cuando las perturbaciones superan cierto umbral (y por ello son más frágiles ante cambios grandes)
- Las redes *modulares y heterogéneas* tienen más capacidad de adaptación, pudiendo cambiar gradualmente a costa de pérdidas locales y transformaciones paulatinas (y por ello son más robustas ante cambios grandes).

# ¿Cuándo será el colapso?

Esta es una pregunta muy difícil, porque es bien posible que las señales que lo anuncian no serán claras hasta *después* del colapso (p.117).

Casi todas las sociedades que han sufrido un colapso, lo han hecho por motivos medioambientales (Isla de Pascua, Mesopotamia, etc.), en el caso maya, a esto se suma el colapso por motivos de desigualdad social (p.123). Son muy pocos los casos de sociedades que han conseguido limitarse voluntariamente para evitar su colapso —destaca el caso de Tikopia, pequeña isla del pacífico, citado en [[2005 - Colapso_ por que unas sociedades perduran y otras desaparecen - Jared Diamond]].

El modelo [[HANDY - modelo]] muestra que para una sociedad fuertemente estratificada el colapso es difícilmente evitable si no deshace primero la estratificación. También ayuda a comprender el papel de las élites en los colapsos: son las más responsables, con mayor capacidad de agencia, pero las últimas en notar las consecuencias; constituyen un tapón formidable que evita la acción efectiva (p.127). El modelo [[Worldf3 - modelo]] es especialmente predictivo y nos puede orientar aún hoy en día.

# Concretar el colapso

En [[2005 - Colapso_ por que unas sociedades perduran y otras desaparecen - Jared Diamond]] el autor propone cinco factores de colapso (recurrentes y frecuentemente sinérgicas):

- degradación medioambiental o disminución de recursos
- cambio climático
- guerras
- perdida repentina de socios comerciales
- malas reacciones de la sociedad frente a los problemas medioambientales

Los motivos ecológicos son el gran factor que lleva a las sociedades a colapsar, siendo el quinto factor un magnificador de la vulnerabilidad social muy frecuente.

Por su parte, en [[2008 - The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors' Toolkit_ - Dmitry Orlov]] propone que los colapsos ocurren en distintas fases, cada una de mayor gravedad que la anterior, pudiendo alcanzar hasta la última o quedarse en alguna intermedia. Poco después añadió una sexta. Estas son el colapso:

1. *financiero**: desaparece la esperanza de continuar con los negocios con normalidad (*business as usual*), los activos financieros no pueden garantizarse.
2. *económico**: desaparece la esperanza de que «el mercado proveerá», las cadenas de abastecimiento se rompen.
3. **político**: desaparece la esperanza de que «el Gobierno se haga cargo de los ciudadanos», la política pierde legitimidad.
4. **social**: desaparece la esperanza de que «los iguales se ayuden entre sí. Las instituciones locales fracasan.
5. **cultural**: desaparece la fe en la bondad humana. Se pierde la generosidad, la amabilidad, la hospitalidad, la compasión.
6. **ecológico**: la posibilidad de recuperar una sociedad, debido al degradación medioambiental causada, es ínfima.

## Dimensiones inmateriales

Los autores dan mucha importancia a lo imaginario, lo simbólico y la intuición, tanto para anticipar mejor la llegada del colapso, como para estar mejor preparados para la transición que implica (p.158<).

Otra cuestión clave es entender a cuáles son los motivos psicológicos por los que gran parte de la población rechaza la posibilidad del colapso o no actúa en consecuencia (p.166<). La importancia de espacios para compartir y experimentar emociones, así como de transitar el duelo que conlleva, en p.176<.

Sobre esto, añaden en el epílogo —escrito 5 años después— que una encuesta de 2020 mostró que el 65% de los franceses creen que el colapso de la civilización occidental va a tener lugar pronto. Un 33% cree que ocurrirá antes de 2040 y un 21% antes de 2030 (p.209).

## La transición

En la transición se dará una coexistencia de un sistema que colapsa y una organización que nace, basada en principios, estrategias y técnicas muy distintas (localidad, redes de apoyo, baja tecnología. Vivir esta contradicción puede ser complicado, implica una actitud a un tiempo catastrofista (pues acepta el colapso) y optimista (pues se centra en la construcción de lo que vendrá después, que puede tener muchos aspectos positivos) (p.180<). Esta es una tarea que debemos emprender ya mismo. Hay que

> organizarse para reencontrar los saberes y las técnicas que nos permitan volver a tomar posesión de nuestros medios de subsistencia, y todo eso *antes* de poder desconectarnos
> p.183

# Cuestiones sueltas

- El sáhara hace 5K años era una selva, sus suelos se secaron demasiado y cruzó un punto de no retorno hacia el desierto. Esto es lo que está pasando en el Amazonas (p.69).
- Evitan el uso de la palabra «crisis», ya que mantiene una esperanza de vuelta a la normalidad, sirviendo de pretexto a las élites para imponer medidas extraordinarias (p.137).
- Algunos autores, como [[David Holmgreen]] (que introdujo la idea de permacultura) o [[John Michael Greer]], considerándolo inevitable, abogan por un colapso temprano, que permita adaptarse mejor al disponer de más recursos para hacerlo.

[Vahid Askarpour · Rating 4 out of 5]

وقتی به فاجعه و فروپاشی فکر می‌کنیم، بی‌درنگ همة تصاویر فجایع آخرالزمانی و دراماتیک داستان‌ها و فیلم‌های علمی-تخیلی در ذهنمان نقش می‌بندد. حتی بارها به ذهنمان خطور هم نمی‌کند که جز این تصوّرات کج و معوج سرگرم‌کننده، فاجعه و فروپاشی قابل ردگیری، سنجش و اندازه‌گیری دقیق علمی هم باشد. تلویزیون‌های کابلی پر است از پیشگویان فرقه‌هایی که به هر بهانه‌ای ندای پایان جهان را سر می‌دهند یا گاهی در چهارراه‌های برخی کشورهای آزادتر، شبه‌پیامبرانی پلاکاردهای مقوایی در دست از وقوع فاجعة غریب‌الوقوع پایانی و رسیدن روز بازپسین خبر می‌دهند. با چنین تصاویری در ذهن، عجیب به نظرمان می‌رسد اگر دانشمندانی پیدا شوند که مدعی یک دانش فرارشته‌ای زیر عنوان «فروپاشی‌شناسی» باشند! و این دقیقاً همان ادعایی است که پابلو سروینیه در کتاب «شیوة فروپاشی همه‌چیز» به‌شکلی شفاف و روشن مطرح می‌کند. او همة اعداد و ارقام و محاسبات و مستندات را (البته آنهایی را که تا سال ۲۰۱۵ میلادی منتشر شده‌اند) به خدمت گرفت تا از یک طرف، مبنایی را برای فروپاشی‌شناسی بسازد و از طرف دیگر، اطمینان خود را از چهار نکتة بنیادین ابراز کند که عبارتنداز: الف. رشد فیزیکی جوامع ما در آیندة نزدیک متوقف خواهد شد؛ ب. آسیبی جبران‌ناپذیر به کل سیستم زمین وارد کرده‌ایم؛ به سمت آینده‌ای بسیار بی‌ثبات و غیرخطی در حرکت هستیم؛ ت. بالقوه در معرض فروپاشی‌های نظام‌مند جهانی قرار داریم.
فروپاشی در ذات طبیعت زمین است. پنج انقراض بزرگ پیشین و فجایع ریز و درشت ادوار مختلف زمین‌شناختی هنوز آثاری را برای مطالعه در لایه‌های مختلف پوستة زمین برجای گذاشته‌اند. در مقیاس انسانی نیز همواره فروپاشی از درون و بیرون، به انحاء گوناگون جوامع و فرهنگ‌ها را تهدید کرده و بارها از میان برده است و یا عاملی مهم در دگردیسی آنها به شمار آمده است. اما آنچه سدة بیست و یکم را با همة ادوار زمین‌شناختی و انسانی متمایز و آن را به عصری منحصربه‌فرد تبدیل می‌کند، قرار داشتن جهان در آستانة فاجعه‌ای فروپاشنده است که در آن، طبیعت و فرهنگ به طور کامل در هم تنیده‌اند. از یک سو، گسترش صنایع فسیلی در طول دو سدة گذشته در سراسر جهان، همة قلمروهای غیرانسانی را متأثر از فعالیت‌های بی‌سابقة انسانی به یک اندازه تحت تأثیرات مخرب خود قرار داده است و از سوی دیگر، امروز به ندرت می‌توان اجتماعی انسانی را یافت که از سبک‌های یکسان‌ساز زندگی جهانی‌شده اثر نپذیرفته باشد و میلی عمیق به کنش و منش مدرن از خود بروز نداده باشد. اکنون بخواهیم یا نه، با تمدنی در مقیاسی جهانی سر و کار داریم و علاوه بر این، بیشترین انفصال قابل تصور را نیز میان این تمدن با زمین شاهد هستیم. وقتی مردم یک تمدن، اتصال خود را با زمین به طور کامل از دست بدهند، به کلی به ساختارهای مصنوعی وابستگی پیدا می‌کنند. با فروپاشی این ساختارهای آسیب‌پذیر، بقای همة جمعیت به خطر می‌افتد. حالا دیگر، بنابر آنچه نویسندة این کتاب با صبوری نشان می‌دهد، فروپاشی می‌رود تا به امری هنجارین برای ما تبدیل شود و به تدریج، وضعیت استثنائیت خود را از دست بدهد. اما این کتاب یک پیشگویی و مویه‌سرایی آخرالزمانی نیست؛ یک مسیر علمی توأم با عمل است. نویسنده مدعی است فروپاشی و مطالعة فروپاشی فرصت‌هایی مغتنم هستند که می‌توان با توسل بر آنها ابناء بشر را از زاویه‌ای دیگر مشاهده نمود.
جهانی‌شدن امروز خطرات نظام‌مندی را در مقیاسی جهانی ایجاد کرده است. دیگر نمی‌توان میان فروپاشی‌های انسانی و طبیعی مرزهای روشنی کشید. کم‌آبی حاصل از گرمایش زمین به راحتی به جنگ آب میان کشورهای بالادست و پائین‌دست رودهای بزرگ دامن خواهد زد، اما خود آن معلول سوختن بی‌حدوحصر سوخت‌های فسیلی به دست انسان است و فاجعه‌ای طبیعی محسوب نمی‌شود. ما امروز برای اولین بار می‌توانیم یک فروپاشی فاجعه‌بار انسانی-طبیعی را در مقیاسی بلند و تقریباً جهانی پیش‌بینی و تصوّر کنیم. دقیقاً در این اوضاع و احوال است که فروپاشی‌شناسی به عنوان یک فرارشته‌ای متشکل از شاخه‌های گوناگون علمی، با فراهم ساختن امکان مطالعة فروپاشی تمدن صنعتی و نشانه‌های ریز و درشت آن در مقیاس جهانی، می‌تواند راه‌ها و برنامه‌هایی سازنده را پیش روی ما قرار دهد؛ نه برای عزلت‌گزینی و مرثیه‌خوانی و بودن در انتظار مرگ واپسین، که برای متعهدانه عمل کردن و رصد کردن پیامدهای فجایع کوچک و بزرگی که همین حالا هم انواع آن را پیرامون خود می‌بینیم و در آینده نیز شدت و حدت‌شان افزایش خواهند یافت (در هر دو بعد طبیعی و انسانی). پابلو سروینیه می‌خواهد بگوید و بر این گفته تأکید کند که «فروپاشی پایان نیست، بلکه آغاز آیندة ماست. ما شیوه‌هایی را برای حضور در جهان و حضور با خویشتن و دیگران و موجودات پیرامونی‌مان از نو ابداع خواهیم کرد».

[Kriegslok · Rating 5 out of 5]

Collapse - "...the process at the end of which basic needs (water, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc) can no longer be provided (at a reasonable cost) to the majority of the population by services under legal supervision"

The authors of this book start with the quite reasonable assumption that society as we know it is teetering on the edge and will collapse sooner rather than later. Published before the Covid pandemic some might try to argue that the content of this book is alarmist (given civilisation managed to muddle its way through that), or at least the doom scenarios laid out are decades away. Be that as it may, this book lays bare the realities of the seeds of its own destruction germinating in the rotten corpse of the globalised neoliberal world in which we live.

One of the unfortunate things about the rapid globalisation we have experienced in just the last few decades is the rapid loss of localised self sustaining economies, and the craft skills on which they depend. The madness of a global production system which concentrates production in a few key areas where labour is cheap essentially puts all the eggs into one basket. It might be something that could work (for the key beneficiaries at least) in a fantasy world of infinite resources and in which there is no waste/pollution feedback loop, but that is a fantasy world. As production has become more specialised, modularised, and dependent on global communications systems an extra layer of risk and complexity has been built in. As for the precarious and unsustainable "growth" model society we live in, (essentially built on debt and debt servicing) demanding ever growing input to prevent another catastrophic implosion, it is understandable why politicians are reluctant to abandon a model the demise of which is likely to be very messy (we won't always be in a position to bail out the bankers and at some point something will give). The authors show that complexity and specialization alone are warning signals in a society which becomes increasingly complicated to control as no one any longer has an overall picture of what is going on and that this complexity, these specialisations, and socio-political control are a major cause of societal collapse (and this is before the effects of runaway climate change are added to the equation. These issues are examined in some detail.

For me one of the fascinating aspects of climate change is our unwillingness as human beings to adequately comprehend what we are faced with, or to react with anything like the sort of determination that, a decade or two ago, might at least have still helped mitigate some of the worst that is to come. This human psychological inability to comprehend anything other than the happy normal that we know is examined in some detail. It is not just that we can't comprehend disaster, it's that we prefer to actively deny it, or "shoot the messenger", quite nicely conveyed in the recent film "Don't Look Up!" (which did its commercial thing, was congratulated for its cleverness, then died and was quickly forgotten). It is also interesting that many specialists and experts in their field have not only for decades identified serious threats to our continuation as a species and a civilisation, but have suggested means to mitigate or work around some of the worst of these threats. Yet rather than embrace such research huge human effort has been invested in undermining and opening to malicious questioning this work and the solutions offered to the point where it has become a highly effective and politically and economically effective industry of denial be that the attempts to provide quasi scientific rebuttals or the simple Goebbels "big lie" repeated often enough which becomes the truth.

So we don't "just" have climate change to deal with. We have an entire economic, political and social system built around the very things that have got us into this mess. The worse things get, as already seems empirically clear, the less likely we are as a society or individuals, to, or be able to, make the choices best tailored to our collective survival. The Meadows Report, quoted by the authors, makes the point that "all crises are interconnected" and makes clear the need for "systemic thinking". Dealing with a single problem is not enough, they all have to be dealt with simultaneously (starting in the 1980s in order to have any real hope of changing anything). Nor are we necessarily dealing with a gradual state of decay. The concept of a switch is used to illustrate this, increasing pressure is applied over time to the switch, however, until it clicks there will be no real discernible change. The moment the switch clicks over though a completely different condition exists and our switch is unlikely to be reversible. The idea that we can muddle along and make it up as we go does not hold water from this perspective.

It would take relatively little to bring our globalized society to a halt. This can be seen in microcosm in war torn societies. But we can transpose this to international society, look what happened to supermarkets during the outbreak of Covid, only days of stores are held in the "just in time" supply chains, how many days before these chains break, never to restart? Then there is the supply of oil and its refined products, production and supply of fertilisers which maintain an artificially hugely overinflated global population. Then the global internet and GPS system without which pretty much all daily activity would now be impossible, how much of that can collapse and die before the societies that depend on it follow, everything is now digitised and dependent upon the unceasing flow of 1's and 0's - oil, money, transport, health, defence, farming, global finance, manufacturing plants - all dependent on electronic information systems. The book also raises one issue that has always bugged me, nuclear installations. These are dependent upon the skilled labour of a very small pool of highly specialized and trained people (at least we hope it is). Running active nuclear plants is a fulltime job, as is managing the decommissioned plants and the waste they have created, a job which needs careful specialized care and attention for at least hundreds of years, and still it is a lethal industry where the solution to waste management has been kicked down the road since its birth. With many such plants threatened by the effects of climatic change this under-studied issue is just one more seemingly insolvable, but particularly existential, threat we face in a collapsing civilisation.

In conclusion the book looks at possible reactions to the acceptance that collapse is coming, even if we aren't quite sure when, or how bad it is going to be. The authors discuss various positions that most readers will probably be familiar with. They do not offer solutions, there aren't really any, its too late for that. However, in opposition to the "Mad Max" "alle gegen alle" of popular apocalyptic science fiction they offer the possibility of a more caring response built on practicality and mutual aid. While this may seem clutching at straws they do point out the crisis can often bring out the best and most supportive in people.

Ultimately we are all doomed, humanity driven to its overdue demise by hubris. This book is one of the best examinations of how we have got there I have yet read.

"Collapse is not the end but the beginning of our future. We will reinvent ways of partying, ways of being present to the world and to oneself, to others and to the beings around us." 

[Jack Hicks · Rating 5 out of 5]

How Everything Can Collapse, Pablo Sevigne and Raphael Stevens, 2016, 2020
Occasionally a book comes along that explains a phenomenon so clearly that you understand a profound truth that has been obscured to the general population, a topic caught up in political warfare, special interest messaging, contingencies, and academic language. The truth referred to here is that the current global capitalistic economy based on perpetual growth is incompatible with the finite resources, geological, ecological systems upon which life on earth depend. If we continue on our current path, we will face an inevitable collapse of not only our economic systems but the very human habitability of our planet. This book was originally published in France in 2016 and just recently translated into English but that doesn’t diminish its relevance to today.
The modern age is the age of increasing acceleration. Human population on earth took over 200,000 years of human existence to reach 1 billion people in 1830. With the advent of the industrial revolution, the population doubled in 100 years to 2 billion in 1930. Since that time population has embarked on a period of exponential growth quadrupling in just 90 years to 8 billion. During the twentieth century energy consumption increased 10-fold, the extraction of minerals by 27 times and building materials by 34 times, marine fish capture by over 8 times since 1950. As the book explains, a result of this onslaught of humanity is that many key minerals, natural resources including oil and natural gas appear to be nearing a peak where the costs of extraction will also enter a period exponential growth. “The limits of our civilization are imposed by the quantities of so-called stock resources which are by definition non-renewable, ( fossil fuels and ores) and flow resources (water, wood, food, etc): these are renewable but we are exhausting them far too quickly for them to have time to regenerate. The boundaries of our civilization represent thresholds that cannot be crossed on pain of destabilizing and destroying the systems that keep it alive, for example, the climate, the major cycles of the earth system, and ecosystems”.
Why is energy production so vital to the functioning of the modern capitalistic economy? What has enabled the huge explosion of human population in the past century? A society based on perpetual growth needs a constant increase in energy consumption and production. Fossil fuels for the last 200 years have been the overwhelming source without which globalization, industry, and economic activity as we know it would have been impossible. It appears now that the days of low-cost extraction of fossil fuels are at nearing an end. With the exception of heritage reserves such as those in the Middle East, new reserves are harder and more perilous to access, and the energy required to produce is dramatically rising in relation to the value of the energy produced. A glaring example of this is the fracking boom in the US where in many cases the costs of extraction exceed the value of the energy produced resulting in companies drilling new wells to pay off the debts on the exhausted wells. Most people are not aware of this fact but without the production of modern nitrate-based fertilizers using the fossil fuel intensive Haber-Bosch process, which began in earnest after WWII, only a fraction of the population of 8 billion humans on earth today would be possible.
Could an inability to increase energy production imperil modern economic systems? “In reality, the energy system and the financial system are closely linked, and the one cannot function without the other. They form a sort of belt drive, an energy-financial axis, which represents the heart of our industrial civilization. The close correlation of recessions and high oil price in the last 50 years reinforces this link. What happens when the price does not oscillate but maintains a steady increase to higher prices?
What about renewables as a way out of this box? As they say there is no free lunch and that applies here. To change the economy from fossil fuels to renewables is an unprecedented, huge and expensive undertaking not only for the physical infrastructure involved. Producing the huge quantities of batteries that are essential is to use large quantities of fossil fuels to mine, extract and refine the rare earth minerals required. Electric grids will have to double in capacity. Nothing of the scale required has been proposed to date. A key factor in the economic feasibility of renewables is the equation of energy input required to produce the energy versus the output. As the production of renewables increase the efficiency will improve but will the total energy output of renewables be able to maintain the size of the current economic system?
This book explores the various possible ways our current unsustainable economic system will collapse over the coming decades and names this topic of study, collapsologie. What is clear is not if collapse will happen but when and how. “The engine of thermo-industrial civilization- the energy-finance dynamo – is on the verge of shutdown. Limits have been reached. The era of abundant and cheap fossil fuels is coming to an end, as evidenced by the rush to find unconventional fossil fuels with prohibitively high costs for the environment, the energy supply and the economy. This definitely buries any possibility of getting back to economic growth, and it thus signs the death warrant of a system based on debts – debts that will simply never be repaid. Second the exponential material expansion of our civilization has irremediably disrupted the complex natural systems on which it rested. Boundaries have been crossed. Global heating and collapses of biodiversity alone harbinger breakdowns in the food supplies and social, commercial and health systems, in concrete terms, massive displacements of populations, armed conflicts, epidemics and famines. …. The ever more complex systems which provide food, water and energy, and which enable politics, finance and the virtual sphere to function, require increasing energy inputs. These infrastructures have become so interdependent, vulnerable and often obsolete that minor interruptions to their flow or supply may endanger the stability of the overall system by causing disproportionate domino effects…. Today, globalization has created global systemic risks, and this is the first time that a very large-scale global collapse has become possible to envisage”.
In 2016 the authors predicted in this book the chaos and disruption in the economic system that a global pandemic would cause. They were spot on correct. This book is important, not that it could inspire despair or denial, but that it shines a glaring light on the inevitable results of humans assuming they can have unlimited growth and wealth on a very finite earth. The inevitable conclusion: we have to evolve a sustainable, cooperative and smaller community scaled lifestyle, a system not based on exponential growth but a system that is compatible with the finite biosystems of the earth. The authors believe that a conversion of this scale most surely cannot happen without a major collapse of the existing global economic and financial system. they are probably correct. JACK

[Lotte · Rating 2 out of 5]

Comment tout peut s'effondrer was recommended to me by a friend, who told me there were seven stages of collapse, and that the authors of the book are part of the collapsology movement. It sounded interesting, so I lent the book from the library, only to loose it somewhere (oh the horror) and to buy my own copy to return to the library.

So, was all this hassle worth it?

Not really.

This books suffers from infobesitas: the authors simply want to add too much studies, details and facts, so their initial message gets lost in all the information. The message of the book, as I understood it, is that a collapse will take place, not as a single event, but in a series of events. They back up this statement using three arguments.

The first argument is that we are nearing the oil peak. Limited access to oil will slow down economy. Companies won't be able to pay of debts, inducing a financial crises.

Secondly, humankind is using up all of the earth's resources and by doing so, destabilising Nature itself. We can already notice that in the climate change and the destruction of biodiversity. These natural instabilities will lead to massive population migrations, famines, epidemics and armed conflicts, incidents that will take place more often and more regularly in the future.

Thirdly, our world has become complex...too complex. A lot of our (energy, food, water) systems have become interdependent. If one system (say electricity) fails, the rest will follow (e.g. food supplies, or nuclear plants).

The authors want to incite their readers to act, namely to use less fossil energies, be self-sustainable and try to transition to circular, local systems.

[Helena · Rating 4 out of 5]

Some caveats aside, this is a great primer for anyone asking what some possible outcomes of climate change are. It'll introduce you to some core concepts and tipping points, which will put into context all the isolated events we usually hear about. You can then easily go off and research some of these concepts in more depth.

Obviously, a lot of the book is speculation (based on the current scientific consensus) but so is climate change skepticism. I would always encourage people to do some research of their own. I'd actually read most of this book a couple of months ago but had put it down in rage because the authors talked of "peak oil" as though it was a certainty. The concept of peak oil is still questioned by many. That was the only major issue I had with the book.

I know that reading about the possible collapse of our civilisation sounds like grim reading, but it's actually alleviated my anxiety over what might happen. I used to "be green" and despair, but since I've realised the fallacy of green capitalism and "sustainability", I've found relief in trying to understand all the possible outcomes of these irreversible changes. Instead of feeling terrified about the worst case scenario in my mind, I'm finding relief in shining a light on the huge variety of possible outcomes.

[Xavier · Rating 3 out of 5]

Comme une amie l'a écrit à propos du film "The Road", "I was suitably traumatized".

Le livre ne prophétise pas un effondrement civilisationnel lors d'un évènement crucial, mais d'innombrables dysfonctionnements qui feront que la vie ne sera plus la même. Plus précaire. Moins prévisible.

Un conseil : lire jusqu'au bout. En effet, l'enchaînement de faits avérés et de prévisions vérifiés ne peut que donner l'impression que tout est perdu, quand enfin, dans le dernier chapitre, l'auteur ouvre sur les possibilités qui s'offrent à nous.

Une quantité énorme de démonstrations et chiffres sont déroulés (quelques 400 références et notes de bas de page viennent étayer le propos), ce qui fait qu'on comprends rapidement l'importance du sujet. La partie sur les "solutions", ou plutôt sur comment aborder l'avenir en souffrant le moins possible, reste comparativement très, trop courte. L'avenir est imprévisible et il n'y a pas de checkliste définitive de ce qu'il faut faire, certes, mais parvenu à la fin du livre on a besoin d'être rassurés sur sa capacité à "passer au travers", pour soi comme sa famille. Les idées données ouvrent une fenêtre d'espoir, c'est à chacun de creuser plus avant pour assurer sa résilience.

[Marie-paule · Rating 4 out of 5]

analyse tres bien documentee de l’evolution de notre societe economico/financiere de croissance perpetuelle dans un monde de resources finies. vers l’inneluctable, l’effondrement a courte ou moyenne echeance. Certes l’auteur invite a l’action collective mais le livre est malgre tout particulierement deprimant. il n’aborde pas le dilemne que rencontre les personnes qui voudraient s’engager dans la transition mais qui vivent dans un tissu familial et social qui vit dans le deni. Or c’est un des freins importants au chagement. comme le dit l’auteur on change si sa communaute change. Autrement on se marginalise, on quitte des liens sociaux forts. Le niveau de conscience, d’education sur les actions enviageable, sur les projets de societe alternative sont malheureusement marginaux, portes par une minorite de bobos intellectuels. Le reste de la population ne veut pas voir ces changements ineluctables. Quand au commentaire que l’humain est pacifique et s’entraide dans la difficulte, je voudrais le croire, mais les evenements de ces dernieres semaines montrent que les societes occidentales ne sont pas pretes au sacrifice ne serait que pour des biens de consommation, alors quand il s’agira de besoins vitaux ... difficile de ne pas avoir peur des lendemains qui nous attendent

[krn ਕਰਨ · Rating 3 out of 5]

What one makes of this book depends, I suspect, upon where one plots oneself on the collapse awareness curve. The unaware might find the energy, research, and emotion invested in the work impressive – some might even be persuaded to take the subject matter seriously. Those who are already aware and struggling to define their own way of being-in-the-world might derive comfort at how open and non-judgmental the authors are towards their fellow humans. And for the few who are quite well advanced on the curve – moving from knowing to understanding to a conscious course of action – this is like an expansion of the community. As Jem Bendell, the founder of the (mostly English-speaking) Deep Adaptation network says, it comes as welcome news that there is a fledgling multi-diciplinary movement already taking shape in the French language.

Given how quickly the conversations around collapse are growing, it’s imperative to bear in mind that How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for Our Times was originally published in France 5 years ago. It’s only the English translation that has come out this year. The research papers cited in the end notes and the bibliographic references are, by necessity, only up to the time of the original publication. The epidemic used by the authors as a case study, for instance, is the Ebola outbreak of 2013-16. Reading the book in the current Covid-19 pandemic, one can only imagine how Servigne and Stevens would use the reams of pandemic-related data available now. Obviously, this is an ongoing story: they might publish a new book at some future date with global Covid-19 lessons.

Enough stage setting. What do I really think?

I like it for its bravery, brevity, and clear-sightedness. Deeply appreciate that it’s not easy to talk about this stuff. Catastrophe is an abhorrent destiny. If it happens, homo sapiens won’t be the first species to go extinct – nor the last – but they will be the only ones to be cognisant of and live through the slow onset of their own extinction. At least the dinosaurs were spared the build up! Wait, how can we be sure that other human species – now extinct – weren’t conscious of their impending doom? Neanderthals and Denisovans, two of up to 20 different types of humans that roamed the earth (according to a new book by Rebecca Wragg-Sykes: Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art): how mindful were they that their kind were about to disappear forever? We might never know unless a dramatic new discovery allows penetrating insight into the Denisovan soul.

So: collapse is not new. Other human species collapsed and became extinct. And among homo sapiens, many empires and civilisations have come and gone. What does ‘everything’ in the title mean? Actually, on this point, there is an elastic stretch in the book. When speaking of collapse, the authors hint variously at: (1) end of industrial civilisation, (2) biodiversity loss, including the human species, (3) end of the planet and our solar system itself.

The end of the solar system is at least a couple of billion years away. The sun is eventually going to collapse on to itself. Nothing to lose sleep over just now. As for our civilisation, the prognosis is dire indeed. We’re living on borrowed time. Servigne and Stevens are very good at marshalling the evidence and making the case; but let’s just say that for me personally, this is no longer a matter of debate.

What is a matter of debate – one that the authors singularly fail to mention* – is who is our civilisation? The civilisation that for the past several hundred years has extracted from the earth without heed, acted without any sense of accountability, and sought to return ever increasing amount of value to ever fewer individuals, at an unimaginable cost to its own future generations, not to mention those it considers outsiders and nonhuman. In a completely self-referential spiral – autopoietic loop – this civilisation has ignored, trashed, exterminated everything that got in the way of its inexhaustible drive to accrue more to itself. That even now, at this impossibly late hour, is blowing a staggering amount of resources to maintain the illusion that it is impregnable.

The name given to this civilisation by those who stand outside its gates is modernity-coloniality. The many Indigenous people around the world, the ones who got violently chewed up and spat out by the relentless consumption of land and carbon: for them, “modernity cannot exist without expropriation, extraction, exploitation, dispossession, destitution, genocides and ecocides.” Indeed, what we call collapse “is already an everyday reality for many Indigenous people in high-intensity (also high risk and high stakes) struggles. These communities are swimming against the same colonial violence that subsidizes and sustains the institutions, comforts and securities that most of us fight to maintain.” Quoted from the excellent essay by Gesturing Towards Decolonial Futures (GTDF), a collective of researchers, artists, educators, activists and Indigenous knowledge keepers.

* To be fair, Servigne and Stevens do mention innovating at the margins (p 71). But they leave the existence of margins as a rhetorical question.